Recent numerical weather predictions from AEMET and supporting ECMWF runs show Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on August 6, favoring strong daytime solar heating and maximum temperatures centered on 36–37°C. These conditions align with the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal warmth across central Spain, pushing market-implied odds toward 37°C at 56% and 38°C at 41%. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact peak timing accounts for the narrow probability on 38°C, while historical August averages near 32–33°C underscore the current anomaly’s role in concentrating trader focus on these two outcomes ahead of official Retiro station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 6?
37°C 56%
38°C 42%
39°C 4%
36°C 3%
NEW
$21,752 Vol.
NEW
$21,752 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
3%
37°C
56%
38°C
42%
39°C
4%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
37°C 56%
38°C 42%
39°C 4%
36°C 3%
NEW
$21,752 Vol.
NEW
$21,752 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
33°C or below
$661 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$2,127 Vol.
1%
35°C
$2,245 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$4,777 Vol.
3%
37°C
$3,737 Vol.
56%
38°C
$3,668 Vol.
42%
39°C
$2,165 Vol.
4%
40°C
$1,051 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$582 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$292 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$448 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather predictions from AEMET and supporting ECMWF runs show Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on August 6, favoring strong daytime solar heating and maximum temperatures centered on 36–37°C. These conditions align with the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal warmth across central Spain, pushing market-implied odds toward 37°C at 56% and 38°C at 41%. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact peak timing accounts for the narrow probability on 38°C, while historical August averages near 32–33°C underscore the current anomaly’s role in concentrating trader focus on these two outcomes ahead of official Retiro station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$21,752End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather predictions from AEMET and supporting ECMWF runs show Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on August 6, favoring strong daytime solar heating and maximum temperatures centered on 36–37°C. These conditions align with the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal warmth across central Spain, pushing market-implied odds toward 37°C at 56% and 38°C at 41%. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact peak timing accounts for the narrow probability on 38°C, while historical August averages near 32–33°C underscore the current anomaly’s role in concentrating trader focus on these two outcomes ahead of official Retiro station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,752End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather predictions from AEMET and supporting ECMWF runs show Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on August 6, favoring strong daytime solar heating and maximum temperatures centered on 36–37°C. These conditions align with the broader seasonal outlook for above-normal warmth across central Spain, pushing market-implied odds toward 37°C at 56% and 38°C at 41%. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact peak timing accounts for the narrow probability on 38°C, while historical August averages near 32–33°C underscore the current anomaly’s role in concentrating trader focus on these two outcomes ahead of official Retiro station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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