Official forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and numerical models indicate a daytime maximum of 37 °C in Taipei on August 5 under persistent subtropical high pressure, clear to partly cloudy skies, and light easterly flow that favors strong diurnal heating. This aligns with recent daily peaks in the upper 30s °C and exceeds the long-term August climatological average of 32–34 °C. Market-implied odds above 99 % for 37 °C reflect trader confidence in the consensus guidance and the absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as afternoon convection. The only realistic deviations would require an unpredicted late-day shower, thicker cloud cover, or station-specific measurement variance, all low-probability outcomes given the latest model runs and observed conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on August 5?
Highest temperature in Taipei on August 5?
37°C 99.6%
38°C <1%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
$60,962 Vol.
$60,962 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
100%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
37°C 99.6%
38°C <1%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
$60,962 Vol.
$60,962 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
29°C or below
$868 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$462 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,656 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$2,630 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$3,686 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$4,533 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$8,463 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$10,646 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$8,832 Vol.
100%
38°C
$8,096 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$10,090 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and numerical models indicate a daytime maximum of 37 °C in Taipei on August 5 under persistent subtropical high pressure, clear to partly cloudy skies, and light easterly flow that favors strong diurnal heating. This aligns with recent daily peaks in the upper 30s °C and exceeds the long-term August climatological average of 32–34 °C. Market-implied odds above 99 % for 37 °C reflect trader confidence in the consensus guidance and the absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as afternoon convection. The only realistic deviations would require an unpredicted late-day shower, thicker cloud cover, or station-specific measurement variance, all low-probability outcomes given the latest model runs and observed conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$60,962End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and numerical models indicate a daytime maximum of 37 °C in Taipei on August 5 under persistent subtropical high pressure, clear to partly cloudy skies, and light easterly flow that favors strong diurnal heating. This aligns with recent daily peaks in the upper 30s °C and exceeds the long-term August climatological average of 32–34 °C. Market-implied odds above 99 % for 37 °C reflect trader confidence in the consensus guidance and the absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as afternoon convection. The only realistic deviations would require an unpredicted late-day shower, thicker cloud cover, or station-specific measurement variance, all low-probability outcomes given the latest model runs and observed conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$60,962End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and numerical models indicate a daytime maximum of 37 °C in Taipei on August 5 under persistent subtropical high pressure, clear to partly cloudy skies, and light easterly flow that favors strong diurnal heating. This aligns with recent daily peaks in the upper 30s °C and exceeds the long-term August climatological average of 32–34 °C. Market-implied odds above 99 % for 37 °C reflect trader confidence in the consensus guidance and the absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as afternoon convection. The only realistic deviations would require an unpredicted late-day shower, thicker cloud cover, or station-specific measurement variance, all low-probability outcomes given the latest model runs and observed conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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