Traders have overwhelmingly priced the 9°C outcome at 99.7% implied probability because official MetService and NIWA forecasts for Wellington on August 5 project a daytime maximum near that level under southerly flow, persistent cloud, and temperatures suppressed below the August climatological average of 12–14°C. Real-time observations and model consensus through the morning show readings climbing to but not exceeding 9°C, with wind chill and marine influence limiting further warming. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day shift in steering patterns or model error allowing readings to reach 10°C or higher before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 5?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 5?
9°C 99.7%
10°C <1%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
$174,655 Vol.
$174,655 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
100%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C or higher
<1%
9°C 99.7%
10°C <1%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
$174,655 Vol.
$174,655 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
3°C or below
$1,150 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$1,080 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$3,076 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$21,476 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$31,419 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$63,625 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$18,651 Vol.
100%
10°C
$15,205 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$11,549 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$4,041 Vol.
<1%
13°C or higher
$3,383 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have overwhelmingly priced the 9°C outcome at 99.7% implied probability because official MetService and NIWA forecasts for Wellington on August 5 project a daytime maximum near that level under southerly flow, persistent cloud, and temperatures suppressed below the August climatological average of 12–14°C. Real-time observations and model consensus through the morning show readings climbing to but not exceeding 9°C, with wind chill and marine influence limiting further warming. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day shift in steering patterns or model error allowing readings to reach 10°C or higher before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$174,655End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have overwhelmingly priced the 9°C outcome at 99.7% implied probability because official MetService and NIWA forecasts for Wellington on August 5 project a daytime maximum near that level under southerly flow, persistent cloud, and temperatures suppressed below the August climatological average of 12–14°C. Real-time observations and model consensus through the morning show readings climbing to but not exceeding 9°C, with wind chill and marine influence limiting further warming. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day shift in steering patterns or model error allowing readings to reach 10°C or higher before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$174,655End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have overwhelmingly priced the 9°C outcome at 99.7% implied probability because official MetService and NIWA forecasts for Wellington on August 5 project a daytime maximum near that level under southerly flow, persistent cloud, and temperatures suppressed below the August climatological average of 12–14°C. Real-time observations and model consensus through the morning show readings climbing to but not exceeding 9°C, with wind chill and marine influence limiting further warming. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects high confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day shift in steering patterns or model error allowing readings to reach 10°C or higher before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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