Trader consensus favors an 88-89°F peak (47.5% implied probability) for Miami on August 5, driven by National Weather Service forecasts calling for a high near 89°F amid scattered afternoon thunderstorms that typically cap daytime maxima. Climatological normals place the average August high at 87-91°F, with recent July 2026 records showing elevated baseline heat that supports slight upside risk into the low 90s (25% for 90-91°F). Key variables include steering patterns, convective timing, and dew-point levels that influence how close readings approach or exceed the 90°F threshold; model consensus remains tight around the upper 80s, though any delay in storm development could push readings marginally higher before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on August 5?
Highest temperature in Miami on August 5?
88-89°F 48%
90-91°F 25%
86-87°F 22%
84-85°F 4%
$36,663 Vol.
$36,663 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
48%
90-91°F
25%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
88-89°F 48%
90-91°F 25%
86-87°F 22%
84-85°F 4%
$36,663 Vol.
$36,663 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
77°F or below
$10,047 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$823 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$742 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$1,897 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$5,280 Vol.
4%
86-87°F
$5,130 Vol.
22%
88-89°F
$3,990 Vol.
48%
90-91°F
$3,989 Vol.
25%
92-93°F
$2,724 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$1,164 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$876 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an 88-89°F peak (47.5% implied probability) for Miami on August 5, driven by National Weather Service forecasts calling for a high near 89°F amid scattered afternoon thunderstorms that typically cap daytime maxima. Climatological normals place the average August high at 87-91°F, with recent July 2026 records showing elevated baseline heat that supports slight upside risk into the low 90s (25% for 90-91°F). Key variables include steering patterns, convective timing, and dew-point levels that influence how close readings approach or exceed the 90°F threshold; model consensus remains tight around the upper 80s, though any delay in storm development could push readings marginally higher before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$36,663End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an 88-89°F peak (47.5% implied probability) for Miami on August 5, driven by National Weather Service forecasts calling for a high near 89°F amid scattered afternoon thunderstorms that typically cap daytime maxima. Climatological normals place the average August high at 87-91°F, with recent July 2026 records showing elevated baseline heat that supports slight upside risk into the low 90s (25% for 90-91°F). Key variables include steering patterns, convective timing, and dew-point levels that influence how close readings approach or exceed the 90°F threshold; model consensus remains tight around the upper 80s, though any delay in storm development could push readings marginally higher before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36,663End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors an 88-89°F peak (47.5% implied probability) for Miami on August 5, driven by National Weather Service forecasts calling for a high near 89°F amid scattered afternoon thunderstorms that typically cap daytime maxima. Climatological normals place the average August high at 87-91°F, with recent July 2026 records showing elevated baseline heat that supports slight upside risk into the low 90s (25% for 90-91°F). Key variables include steering patterns, convective timing, and dew-point levels that influence how close readings approach or exceed the 90°F threshold; model consensus remains tight around the upper 80s, though any delay in storm development could push readings marginally higher before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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