Latest forecast consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and World Weather Information Service points to a daily maximum of 36–38°C in Warsaw on August 5, driven by clear skies, strong solar insolation, and warm southerly advection ahead of a high-pressure ridge. This setup favors peak readings near 37°C during afternoon hours, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 43% for 37°C and 30.5% for 38°C. Model guidance shows limited spread due to minimal cloud cover and stable boundary-layer conditions, though slight variations in wind direction or timing could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Historical August extremes in the region rarely exceed 35°C without similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader focus on these narrow outcomes ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 5?
37°C 41%
38°C 31%
36°C 22%
35°C 4.9%
$42,097 Vol.
$42,097 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
5%
36°C
22%
37°C
41%
38°C
31%
39°C
4%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
37°C 41%
38°C 31%
36°C 22%
35°C 4.9%
$42,097 Vol.
$42,097 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
31°C or below
$6,369 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$4,881 Vol.
1%
33°C
$3,143 Vol.
1%
34°C
$2,566 Vol.
2%
35°C
$5,334 Vol.
5%
36°C
$2,308 Vol.
22%
37°C
$1,970 Vol.
41%
38°C
$5,788 Vol.
31%
39°C
$5,810 Vol.
4%
40°C
$2,581 Vol.
1%
41°C or higher
$1,348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and World Weather Information Service points to a daily maximum of 36–38°C in Warsaw on August 5, driven by clear skies, strong solar insolation, and warm southerly advection ahead of a high-pressure ridge. This setup favors peak readings near 37°C during afternoon hours, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 43% for 37°C and 30.5% for 38°C. Model guidance shows limited spread due to minimal cloud cover and stable boundary-layer conditions, though slight variations in wind direction or timing could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Historical August extremes in the region rarely exceed 35°C without similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader focus on these narrow outcomes ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$42,097End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and World Weather Information Service points to a daily maximum of 36–38°C in Warsaw on August 5, driven by clear skies, strong solar insolation, and warm southerly advection ahead of a high-pressure ridge. This setup favors peak readings near 37°C during afternoon hours, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 43% for 37°C and 30.5% for 38°C. Model guidance shows limited spread due to minimal cloud cover and stable boundary-layer conditions, though slight variations in wind direction or timing could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Historical August extremes in the region rarely exceed 35°C without similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader focus on these narrow outcomes ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42,097End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and World Weather Information Service points to a daily maximum of 36–38°C in Warsaw on August 5, driven by clear skies, strong solar insolation, and warm southerly advection ahead of a high-pressure ridge. This setup favors peak readings near 37°C during afternoon hours, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities of 43% for 37°C and 30.5% for 38°C. Model guidance shows limited spread due to minimal cloud cover and stable boundary-layer conditions, though slight variations in wind direction or timing could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Historical August extremes in the region rarely exceed 35°C without similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing trader focus on these narrow outcomes ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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