**Forecast models indicate a cooling trend for Warsaw on August 7, 2026, following an intense heatwave, with ensemble guidance pointing to a daily maximum near 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies and possible scattered showers.** This aligns with the market's near-even split between those two outcomes at roughly 33% and 31.5% implied probability. Recent model runs from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA show a shift from southerly warm-air advection to northwesterly flow, bringing milder Atlantic air and increasing cloud cover that limits peak heating. Convective showers, already appearing in some guidance with probabilities of 20–60% during the afternoon, could further suppress temperatures by 1–2°C depending on timing and coverage. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages highs around 24–26°C, providing context, while the preceding days' 35–39°C readings highlight the rapid change. Resolution hinges on the official highest recorded temperature, so traders monitor updated short-range model outputs and Institute of Meteorology and Water Management briefings for any last adjustments in cloud or precipitation timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 7?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 7?
25°C 33%
26°C 31%
27°C 17%
24°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
9%
24°C
15%
25°C
33%
26°C
31%
27°C
17%
28°C
4%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
25°C 33%
26°C 31%
27°C 17%
24°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
22°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
23°C
$20 Vol.
9%
24°C
$59 Vol.
15%
25°C
$11 Vol.
33%
26°C
$62 Vol.
31%
27°C
$98 Vol.
17%
28°C
$7 Vol.
4%
29°C
$7 Vol.
2%
30°C
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a cooling trend for Warsaw on August 7, 2026, following an intense heatwave, with ensemble guidance pointing to a daily maximum near 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies and possible scattered showers.**
This aligns with the market's near-even split between those two outcomes at roughly 33% and 31.5% implied probability. Recent model runs from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA show a shift from southerly warm-air advection to northwesterly flow, bringing milder Atlantic air and increasing cloud cover that limits peak heating.
Convective showers, already appearing in some guidance with probabilities of 20–60% during the afternoon, could further suppress temperatures by 1–2°C depending on timing and coverage. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages highs around 24–26°C, providing context, while the preceding days' 35–39°C readings highlight the rapid change.
Resolution hinges on the official highest recorded temperature, so traders monitor updated short-range model outputs and Institute of Meteorology and Water Management briefings for any last adjustments in cloud or precipitation timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$274End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a cooling trend for Warsaw on August 7, 2026, following an intense heatwave, with ensemble guidance pointing to a daily maximum near 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies and possible scattered showers.**
This aligns with the market's near-even split between those two outcomes at roughly 33% and 31.5% implied probability. Recent model runs from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA show a shift from southerly warm-air advection to northwesterly flow, bringing milder Atlantic air and increasing cloud cover that limits peak heating.
Convective showers, already appearing in some guidance with probabilities of 20–60% during the afternoon, could further suppress temperatures by 1–2°C depending on timing and coverage. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages highs around 24–26°C, providing context, while the preceding days' 35–39°C readings highlight the rapid change.
Resolution hinges on the official highest recorded temperature, so traders monitor updated short-range model outputs and Institute of Meteorology and Water Management briefings for any last adjustments in cloud or precipitation timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$274End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a cooling trend for Warsaw on August 7, 2026, following an intense heatwave, with ensemble guidance pointing to a daily maximum near 25–26°C under partly cloudy skies and possible scattered showers.** This aligns with the market's near-even split between those two outcomes at roughly 33% and 31.5% implied probability. Recent model runs from sources such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA show a shift from southerly warm-air advection to northwesterly flow, bringing milder Atlantic air and increasing cloud cover that limits peak heating. Convective showers, already appearing in some guidance with probabilities of 20–60% during the afternoon, could further suppress temperatures by 1–2°C depending on timing and coverage. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages highs around 24–26°C, providing context, while the preceding days' 35–39°C readings highlight the rapid change. Resolution hinges on the official highest recorded temperature, so traders monitor updated short-range model outputs and Institute of Meteorology and Water Management briefings for any last adjustments in cloud or precipitation timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions