Wellington's mid-winter temperatures are shaped by frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean, which bring cooler maritime air and limit daytime maxima despite the city's coastal location. Current forecasts from MetService and AccuWeather point to a high near 9–11 °C on August 6 amid a cold outbreak, with showers or hail possible and overnight lows dipping to 5 °C or below. NIWA's seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average conditions for the Wellington region through August, consistent with typical August maxima of 12 °C, but recent model runs and observed southerly winds have introduced a short-term cooling bias that favors the 10–11 °C brackets. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with traders weighting the latest guidance more heavily than monthly climatology while acknowledging forecast uncertainty from shifting wind patterns and potential clearing that could allow brief warming.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?
11°C 53%
10°C 37%
12°C 10%
9°C 4%
NEW
$27,175 Vol.
NEW
$27,175 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
4%
10°C
37%
11°C
53%
12°C
10%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 53%
10°C 37%
12°C 10%
9°C 4%
NEW
$27,175 Vol.
NEW
$27,175 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
5°C or below
$373 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$353 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$581 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$2,141 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$3,681 Vol.
4%
10°C
$4,345 Vol.
37%
11°C
$5,508 Vol.
53%
12°C
$4,793 Vol.
10%
13°C
$3,476 Vol.
1%
14°C
$577 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$1,347 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's mid-winter temperatures are shaped by frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean, which bring cooler maritime air and limit daytime maxima despite the city's coastal location. Current forecasts from MetService and AccuWeather point to a high near 9–11 °C on August 6 amid a cold outbreak, with showers or hail possible and overnight lows dipping to 5 °C or below. NIWA's seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average conditions for the Wellington region through August, consistent with typical August maxima of 12 °C, but recent model runs and observed southerly winds have introduced a short-term cooling bias that favors the 10–11 °C brackets. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with traders weighting the latest guidance more heavily than monthly climatology while acknowledging forecast uncertainty from shifting wind patterns and potential clearing that could allow brief warming.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$27,175End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's mid-winter temperatures are shaped by frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean, which bring cooler maritime air and limit daytime maxima despite the city's coastal location. Current forecasts from MetService and AccuWeather point to a high near 9–11 °C on August 6 amid a cold outbreak, with showers or hail possible and overnight lows dipping to 5 °C or below. NIWA's seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average conditions for the Wellington region through August, consistent with typical August maxima of 12 °C, but recent model runs and observed southerly winds have introduced a short-term cooling bias that favors the 10–11 °C brackets. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with traders weighting the latest guidance more heavily than monthly climatology while acknowledging forecast uncertainty from shifting wind patterns and potential clearing that could allow brief warming.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,175End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington's mid-winter temperatures are shaped by frequent southerly flows from the Southern Ocean, which bring cooler maritime air and limit daytime maxima despite the city's coastal location. Current forecasts from MetService and AccuWeather point to a high near 9–11 °C on August 6 amid a cold outbreak, with showers or hail possible and overnight lows dipping to 5 °C or below. NIWA's seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average conditions for the Wellington region through August, consistent with typical August maxima of 12 °C, but recent model runs and observed southerly winds have introduced a short-term cooling bias that favors the 10–11 °C brackets. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with traders weighting the latest guidance more heavily than monthly climatology while acknowledging forecast uncertainty from shifting wind patterns and potential clearing that could allow brief warming.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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