**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 7 maximum temperature centers on a MetService forecast of 13°C, driven by northerly winds advecting milder maritime air after earlier southerly outbreaks.** This setup aligns with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 13°C, ahead of 12°C (24.5%) and 14°C (17.0%). August climatology in Wellington shows mean daily highs near 12°C, with frequent variability from frontal passages and the city’s exposed coastal location. Recent model runs indicate a transient ridge and northerly flow will limit cloud cover enough for modest daytime warming while keeping the peak below the higher teens. Southerly shifts or increased rain could cap readings at 12°C or below, whereas stronger northerlies or clearer skies could nudge toward 14°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook favors near-average temperatures for the region through August, consistent with the tight clustering of market probabilities around the 12–14°C range. Updated forecast guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 7?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 7?
13°C 56%
12°C 25%
14°C 17%
11°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
3%
12°C
25%
13°C
56%
14°C
17%
15°C
3%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
1%
13°C 56%
12°C 25%
14°C 17%
11°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
7°C or below
$407 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$150 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$106 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$103 Vol.
1%
11°C
$178 Vol.
3%
12°C
$205 Vol.
25%
13°C
$428 Vol.
56%
14°C
$234 Vol.
17%
15°C
$246 Vol.
3%
16°C
$10 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$100 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 7 maximum temperature centers on a MetService forecast of 13°C, driven by northerly winds advecting milder maritime air after earlier southerly outbreaks.** This setup aligns with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 13°C, ahead of 12°C (24.5%) and 14°C (17.0%).
August climatology in Wellington shows mean daily highs near 12°C, with frequent variability from frontal passages and the city’s exposed coastal location. Recent model runs indicate a transient ridge and northerly flow will limit cloud cover enough for modest daytime warming while keeping the peak below the higher teens. Southerly shifts or increased rain could cap readings at 12°C or below, whereas stronger northerlies or clearer skies could nudge toward 14°C.
NIWA’s seasonal outlook favors near-average temperatures for the region through August, consistent with the tight clustering of market probabilities around the 12–14°C range. Updated forecast guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,168End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 7 maximum temperature centers on a MetService forecast of 13°C, driven by northerly winds advecting milder maritime air after earlier southerly outbreaks.** This setup aligns with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 13°C, ahead of 12°C (24.5%) and 14°C (17.0%).
August climatology in Wellington shows mean daily highs near 12°C, with frequent variability from frontal passages and the city’s exposed coastal location. Recent model runs indicate a transient ridge and northerly flow will limit cloud cover enough for modest daytime warming while keeping the peak below the higher teens. Southerly shifts or increased rain could cap readings at 12°C or below, whereas stronger northerlies or clearer skies could nudge toward 14°C.
NIWA’s seasonal outlook favors near-average temperatures for the region through August, consistent with the tight clustering of market probabilities around the 12–14°C range. Updated forecast guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,168End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 7 maximum temperature centers on a MetService forecast of 13°C, driven by northerly winds advecting milder maritime air after earlier southerly outbreaks.** This setup aligns with the market’s 56.5% implied probability on 13°C, ahead of 12°C (24.5%) and 14°C (17.0%). August climatology in Wellington shows mean daily highs near 12°C, with frequent variability from frontal passages and the city’s exposed coastal location. Recent model runs indicate a transient ridge and northerly flow will limit cloud cover enough for modest daytime warming while keeping the peak below the higher teens. Southerly shifts or increased rain could cap readings at 12°C or below, whereas stronger northerlies or clearer skies could nudge toward 14°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook favors near-average temperatures for the region through August, consistent with the tight clustering of market probabilities around the 12–14°C range. Updated forecast guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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