Hong Kong Observatory guidance for August 5, 2026, projects sunny periods under subtropical high pressure with light winds, yielding a maximum near 33°C in urban areas and slightly higher inland, consistent with early-August climatology of 31–33°C at the official station amid long-term warming and neutral ENSO conditions. Morning readings near 29°C by 10 a.m. and strong daytime insolation support this range, yet traders assign the highest implied probability (56%) to 32°C because urban heat-island effects and afternoon convective cloud often trim the official peak one degree below initial model output. Secondary weight on 33°C (28.5%) reflects residual forecast uncertainty, while negligible odds below 31°C or above 34°C align with ensemble consensus and historical rarity of extremes on this date. Updated HKO briefings and any late-day shower development remain the key variables that could shift these probabilities before the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?
32°C 64%
33°C 29%
34°C 7.5%
31°C <1%
$198,147 Vol.
$198,147 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
64%
33°C
29%
34°C
8%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 64%
33°C 29%
34°C 7.5%
31°C <1%
$198,147 Vol.
$198,147 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
27°C or below
$7,308 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5,723 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$15,174 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$48,770 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$27,927 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$22,255 Vol.
64%
33°C
$22,358 Vol.
29%
34°C
$19,200 Vol.
8%
35°C
$15,526 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$7,548 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$6,358 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory guidance for August 5, 2026, projects sunny periods under subtropical high pressure with light winds, yielding a maximum near 33°C in urban areas and slightly higher inland, consistent with early-August climatology of 31–33°C at the official station amid long-term warming and neutral ENSO conditions. Morning readings near 29°C by 10 a.m. and strong daytime insolation support this range, yet traders assign the highest implied probability (56%) to 32°C because urban heat-island effects and afternoon convective cloud often trim the official peak one degree below initial model output. Secondary weight on 33°C (28.5%) reflects residual forecast uncertainty, while negligible odds below 31°C or above 34°C align with ensemble consensus and historical rarity of extremes on this date. Updated HKO briefings and any late-day shower development remain the key variables that could shift these probabilities before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$198,147End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory guidance for August 5, 2026, projects sunny periods under subtropical high pressure with light winds, yielding a maximum near 33°C in urban areas and slightly higher inland, consistent with early-August climatology of 31–33°C at the official station amid long-term warming and neutral ENSO conditions. Morning readings near 29°C by 10 a.m. and strong daytime insolation support this range, yet traders assign the highest implied probability (56%) to 32°C because urban heat-island effects and afternoon convective cloud often trim the official peak one degree below initial model output. Secondary weight on 33°C (28.5%) reflects residual forecast uncertainty, while negligible odds below 31°C or above 34°C align with ensemble consensus and historical rarity of extremes on this date. Updated HKO briefings and any late-day shower development remain the key variables that could shift these probabilities before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$198,147End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory guidance for August 5, 2026, projects sunny periods under subtropical high pressure with light winds, yielding a maximum near 33°C in urban areas and slightly higher inland, consistent with early-August climatology of 31–33°C at the official station amid long-term warming and neutral ENSO conditions. Morning readings near 29°C by 10 a.m. and strong daytime insolation support this range, yet traders assign the highest implied probability (56%) to 32°C because urban heat-island effects and afternoon convective cloud often trim the official peak one degree below initial model output. Secondary weight on 33°C (28.5%) reflects residual forecast uncertainty, while negligible odds below 31°C or above 34°C align with ensemble consensus and historical rarity of extremes on this date. Updated HKO briefings and any late-day shower development remain the key variables that could shift these probabilities before the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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