Persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China has sustained a regional heatwave, with recent official forecasts from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau pointing to a daily maximum near 33–34°C for August 5 amid possible cloud cover and scattered rain. This aligns with the market's strong 73.5% implied probability for 33°C, as climatological August averages hover around 31–32°C and model consensus shows limited potential for further intensification today. Recent orange heat alerts through early August reflected sustained 35–38°C peaks on prior days, yet evolving steering patterns and moisture intrusion appear to be capping today's extreme, keeping 34°C a distant secondary outcome at 13%. Traders are monitoring final observational data releases for resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 5?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 5?
33°C 79%
34°C 20%
35°C 2%
36°C <1%
$99,488 Vol.
$99,488 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
79%
34°C
20%
35°C
2%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 79%
34°C 20%
35°C 2%
36°C <1%
$99,488 Vol.
$99,488 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
28°C or below
$259 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,088 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$5,930 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$13,826 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$21,331 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$20,493 Vol.
79%
34°C
$12,164 Vol.
20%
35°C
$14,737 Vol.
2%
36°C
$7,792 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$2,325 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$939 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China has sustained a regional heatwave, with recent official forecasts from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau pointing to a daily maximum near 33–34°C for August 5 amid possible cloud cover and scattered rain. This aligns with the market's strong 73.5% implied probability for 33°C, as climatological August averages hover around 31–32°C and model consensus shows limited potential for further intensification today. Recent orange heat alerts through early August reflected sustained 35–38°C peaks on prior days, yet evolving steering patterns and moisture intrusion appear to be capping today's extreme, keeping 34°C a distant secondary outcome at 13%. Traders are monitoring final observational data releases for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$99,488End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China has sustained a regional heatwave, with recent official forecasts from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau pointing to a daily maximum near 33–34°C for August 5 amid possible cloud cover and scattered rain. This aligns with the market's strong 73.5% implied probability for 33°C, as climatological August averages hover around 31–32°C and model consensus shows limited potential for further intensification today. Recent orange heat alerts through early August reflected sustained 35–38°C peaks on prior days, yet evolving steering patterns and moisture intrusion appear to be capping today's extreme, keeping 34°C a distant secondary outcome at 13%. Traders are monitoring final observational data releases for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$99,488End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China has sustained a regional heatwave, with recent official forecasts from agencies like the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau pointing to a daily maximum near 33–34°C for August 5 amid possible cloud cover and scattered rain. This aligns with the market's strong 73.5% implied probability for 33°C, as climatological August averages hover around 31–32°C and model consensus shows limited potential for further intensification today. Recent orange heat alerts through early August reflected sustained 35–38°C peaks on prior days, yet evolving steering patterns and moisture intrusion appear to be capping today's extreme, keeping 34°C a distant secondary outcome at 13%. Traders are monitoring final observational data releases for resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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