Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models indicate a highest temperature for Chicago on August 5 most likely in the 78–81°F range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring those bins. Cooler-than-normal conditions stem from northwesterly flow and moderating lake breezes off Lake Michigan, which suppress daytime maxima along the shoreline while historical August averages near 83–84°F. Limited cloud cover and weak southerly advection have kept temperatures from climbing further, though minor model spread around timing of any afternoon mixing introduces uncertainty between the 76–77°F and 80–81°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance later today could refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 5?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 5?
78-79°F 32%
80-81°F 26%
76-77°F 20%
82-83°F 16%
NEW
$22,980 Vol.
NEW
$22,980 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
32%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
16%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 32%
80-81°F 26%
76-77°F 20%
82-83°F 16%
NEW
$22,980 Vol.
NEW
$22,980 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
75°F or below
$7,250 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$2,437 Vol.
20%
78-79°F
$1,857 Vol.
32%
80-81°F
$2,311 Vol.
26%
82-83°F
$1,398 Vol.
16%
84-85°F
$3,607 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$1,664 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$903 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$547 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$524 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$483 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models indicate a highest temperature for Chicago on August 5 most likely in the 78–81°F range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring those bins. Cooler-than-normal conditions stem from northwesterly flow and moderating lake breezes off Lake Michigan, which suppress daytime maxima along the shoreline while historical August averages near 83–84°F. Limited cloud cover and weak southerly advection have kept temperatures from climbing further, though minor model spread around timing of any afternoon mixing introduces uncertainty between the 76–77°F and 80–81°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance later today could refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$22,980End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models indicate a highest temperature for Chicago on August 5 most likely in the 78–81°F range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring those bins. Cooler-than-normal conditions stem from northwesterly flow and moderating lake breezes off Lake Michigan, which suppress daytime maxima along the shoreline while historical August averages near 83–84°F. Limited cloud cover and weak southerly advection have kept temperatures from climbing further, though minor model spread around timing of any afternoon mixing introduces uncertainty between the 76–77°F and 80–81°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance later today could refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,980End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models indicate a highest temperature for Chicago on August 5 most likely in the 78–81°F range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring those bins. Cooler-than-normal conditions stem from northwesterly flow and moderating lake breezes off Lake Michigan, which suppress daytime maxima along the shoreline while historical August averages near 83–84°F. Limited cloud cover and weak southerly advection have kept temperatures from climbing further, though minor model spread around timing of any afternoon mixing introduces uncertainty between the 76–77°F and 80–81°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance later today could refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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