Forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a daytime maximum of 35°C in Madrid on August 5 under sunny skies and light winds, aligning with the market’s strong consensus around 36°C. This reflects typical mid-August conditions where central Spain’s continental climate produces highs near or slightly above the 32–33°C seasonal average, with minimal cloud cover and dry air supporting efficient daytime heating. No active heat dome or anomalous synoptic pattern is evident in current guidance, keeping probabilities for extremes below 38°C very low. Real-time surface observations and updated short-range models through the afternoon will determine the final peak, with traders weighting the narrow 35–37°C window given the low forecast uncertainty on this date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 5?
36°C 75%
35°C 15%
37°C 10%
38°C <1%
$32,765 Vol.
$32,765 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
15%
36°C
75%
37°C
10%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
36°C 75%
35°C 15%
37°C 10%
38°C <1%
$32,765 Vol.
$32,765 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
31°C or below
$961 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$642 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$985 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$2,069 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$8,881 Vol.
15%
36°C
$5,466 Vol.
75%
37°C
$4,138 Vol.
10%
38°C
$2,010 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$1,192 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$947 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$5,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a daytime maximum of 35°C in Madrid on August 5 under sunny skies and light winds, aligning with the market’s strong consensus around 36°C. This reflects typical mid-August conditions where central Spain’s continental climate produces highs near or slightly above the 32–33°C seasonal average, with minimal cloud cover and dry air supporting efficient daytime heating. No active heat dome or anomalous synoptic pattern is evident in current guidance, keeping probabilities for extremes below 38°C very low. Real-time surface observations and updated short-range models through the afternoon will determine the final peak, with traders weighting the narrow 35–37°C window given the low forecast uncertainty on this date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$32,765End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a daytime maximum of 35°C in Madrid on August 5 under sunny skies and light winds, aligning with the market’s strong consensus around 36°C. This reflects typical mid-August conditions where central Spain’s continental climate produces highs near or slightly above the 32–33°C seasonal average, with minimal cloud cover and dry air supporting efficient daytime heating. No active heat dome or anomalous synoptic pattern is evident in current guidance, keeping probabilities for extremes below 38°C very low. Real-time surface observations and updated short-range models through the afternoon will determine the final peak, with traders weighting the narrow 35–37°C window given the low forecast uncertainty on this date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,765End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a daytime maximum of 35°C in Madrid on August 5 under sunny skies and light winds, aligning with the market’s strong consensus around 36°C. This reflects typical mid-August conditions where central Spain’s continental climate produces highs near or slightly above the 32–33°C seasonal average, with minimal cloud cover and dry air supporting efficient daytime heating. No active heat dome or anomalous synoptic pattern is evident in current guidance, keeping probabilities for extremes below 38°C very low. Real-time surface observations and updated short-range models through the afternoon will determine the final peak, with traders weighting the narrow 35–37°C window given the low forecast uncertainty on this date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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