Uncertainty in short-range forecast models from agencies like Brazil's INMET drives the closely matched market odds around 25–27°C for São Paulo's August 7 high, with traders weighing variable afternoon cloud cover and late-day showers that could cap or enhance diurnal warming. In the region's subtropical winter climate, typical August maxima hover near 24–25°C under the South Atlantic subtropical high, but shifts in steering winds or moisture advection can easily push readings a degree or two higher or lower. Historical analogs show occasional spikes above 27°C when clear skies allow stronger solar heating, while increased humidity or early precipitation often suppresses peaks, leaving the 24–28°C band as the most plausible resolution range pending final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 7?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 7?
25°C 21%
26°C 20%
27°C 20%
24°C 13%
NEW
$57,573 Vol.
NEW
$57,573 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
22°C or below
7%
23°C
9%
24°C
13%
25°C
21%
26°C
20%
27°C
20%
28°C
8%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
25°C 21%
26°C 20%
27°C 20%
24°C 13%
NEW
$57,573 Vol.
NEW
$57,573 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
22°C or below
$17,909 Vol.
7%
23°C
$3,930 Vol.
9%
24°C
$4,854 Vol.
13%
25°C
$6,373 Vol.
21%
26°C
$5,331 Vol.
20%
27°C
$2,773 Vol.
20%
28°C
$3,333 Vol.
8%
29°C
$6,034 Vol.
1%
30°C
$1,521 Vol.
1%
31°C
$4,461 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$1,055 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-range forecast models from agencies like Brazil's INMET drives the closely matched market odds around 25–27°C for São Paulo's August 7 high, with traders weighing variable afternoon cloud cover and late-day showers that could cap or enhance diurnal warming. In the region's subtropical winter climate, typical August maxima hover near 24–25°C under the South Atlantic subtropical high, but shifts in steering winds or moisture advection can easily push readings a degree or two higher or lower. Historical analogs show occasional spikes above 27°C when clear skies allow stronger solar heating, while increased humidity or early precipitation often suppresses peaks, leaving the 24–28°C band as the most plausible resolution range pending final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$57,573End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-range forecast models from agencies like Brazil's INMET drives the closely matched market odds around 25–27°C for São Paulo's August 7 high, with traders weighing variable afternoon cloud cover and late-day showers that could cap or enhance diurnal warming. In the region's subtropical winter climate, typical August maxima hover near 24–25°C under the South Atlantic subtropical high, but shifts in steering winds or moisture advection can easily push readings a degree or two higher or lower. Historical analogs show occasional spikes above 27°C when clear skies allow stronger solar heating, while increased humidity or early precipitation often suppresses peaks, leaving the 24–28°C band as the most plausible resolution range pending final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$57,573End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Uncertainty in short-range forecast models from agencies like Brazil's INMET drives the closely matched market odds around 25–27°C for São Paulo's August 7 high, with traders weighing variable afternoon cloud cover and late-day showers that could cap or enhance diurnal warming. In the region's subtropical winter climate, typical August maxima hover near 24–25°C under the South Atlantic subtropical high, but shifts in steering winds or moisture advection can easily push readings a degree or two higher or lower. Historical analogs show occasional spikes above 27°C when clear skies allow stronger solar heating, while increased humidity or early precipitation often suppresses peaks, leaving the 24–28°C band as the most plausible resolution range pending final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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