Current forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate a moderate marine layer influence and onshore flow holding peak temperatures in Los Angeles near 78–79°F on August 6, supporting the 57.5% market-implied probability for that bin. This aligns with typical early-August climatology for the Los Angeles basin, where Pacific sea-surface temperatures and coastal stratus moderate extremes unless offshore winds or high-pressure ridging develop. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with only modest warming potential if the marine layer thins overnight, explaining the secondary 35.5% weighting on 76–77°F and the low odds on bins above 80°F. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on August 6?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 6?
78-79°F 56%
76-77°F 37%
80-81°F 6%
74-75°F 4%
NEW
$13,612 Vol.
NEW
$13,612 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
37%
78-79°F
56%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 56%
76-77°F 37%
80-81°F 6%
74-75°F 4%
NEW
$13,612 Vol.
NEW
$13,612 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
69°F or below
$541 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$589 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$395 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$597 Vol.
4%
76-77°F
$1,811 Vol.
37%
78-79°F
$4,591 Vol.
56%
80-81°F
$511 Vol.
6%
82-83°F
$344 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$590 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$1,854 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$1,790 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate a moderate marine layer influence and onshore flow holding peak temperatures in Los Angeles near 78–79°F on August 6, supporting the 57.5% market-implied probability for that bin. This aligns with typical early-August climatology for the Los Angeles basin, where Pacific sea-surface temperatures and coastal stratus moderate extremes unless offshore winds or high-pressure ridging develop. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with only modest warming potential if the marine layer thins overnight, explaining the secondary 35.5% weighting on 76–77°F and the low odds on bins above 80°F. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$13,612End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate a moderate marine layer influence and onshore flow holding peak temperatures in Los Angeles near 78–79°F on August 6, supporting the 57.5% market-implied probability for that bin. This aligns with typical early-August climatology for the Los Angeles basin, where Pacific sea-surface temperatures and coastal stratus moderate extremes unless offshore winds or high-pressure ridging develop. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with only modest warming potential if the marine layer thins overnight, explaining the secondary 35.5% weighting on 76–77°F and the low odds on bins above 80°F. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,612End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from the National Weather Service indicate a moderate marine layer influence and onshore flow holding peak temperatures in Los Angeles near 78–79°F on August 6, supporting the 57.5% market-implied probability for that bin. This aligns with typical early-August climatology for the Los Angeles basin, where Pacific sea-surface temperatures and coastal stratus moderate extremes unless offshore winds or high-pressure ridging develop. Ensemble guidance shows limited day-to-day variability, with only modest warming potential if the marine layer thins overnight, explaining the secondary 35.5% weighting on 76–77°F and the low odds on bins above 80°F. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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