Recent Met Office forecasts indicate a minimum temperature of 17°C for London on August 11, 2026, driven by a post-heatwave cooling trend with daytime highs near 26°C under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows depend on radiational cooling rates, modulated by cloud cover, light winds, and urban heat island effects that typically add 1–2°C compared to rural areas. Ensemble model consensus and historical August climatology (average lows near 14–16°C) support trader positioning around 16–18°C as the most probable outcomes, though short-range model variability could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated guidance from the Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in the next 48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 11?
Lowest temperature in London on August 11?
17°C 41%
16°C 24%
18°C 18%
15°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
12°C or below
3%
13°C
3%
14°C
6%
15°C
12%
16°C
24%
17°C
41%
18°C
18%
19°C
6%
20°C
6%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
17°C 41%
16°C 24%
18°C 18%
15°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
12°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
13°C
$23 Vol.
3%
14°C
$23 Vol.
6%
15°C
$0 Vol.
12%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$71 Vol.
41%
18°C
$13 Vol.
18%
19°C
$23 Vol.
6%
20°C
$28 Vol.
6%
21°C
$12 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$15 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office forecasts indicate a minimum temperature of 17°C for London on August 11, 2026, driven by a post-heatwave cooling trend with daytime highs near 26°C under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows depend on radiational cooling rates, modulated by cloud cover, light winds, and urban heat island effects that typically add 1–2°C compared to rural areas. Ensemble model consensus and historical August climatology (average lows near 14–16°C) support trader positioning around 16–18°C as the most probable outcomes, though short-range model variability could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated guidance from the Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in the next 48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$213End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office forecasts indicate a minimum temperature of 17°C for London on August 11, 2026, driven by a post-heatwave cooling trend with daytime highs near 26°C under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows depend on radiational cooling rates, modulated by cloud cover, light winds, and urban heat island effects that typically add 1–2°C compared to rural areas. Ensemble model consensus and historical August climatology (average lows near 14–16°C) support trader positioning around 16–18°C as the most probable outcomes, though short-range model variability could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated guidance from the Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in the next 48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$213End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office forecasts indicate a minimum temperature of 17°C for London on August 11, 2026, driven by a post-heatwave cooling trend with daytime highs near 26°C under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows depend on radiational cooling rates, modulated by cloud cover, light winds, and urban heat island effects that typically add 1–2°C compared to rural areas. Ensemble model consensus and historical August climatology (average lows near 14–16°C) support trader positioning around 16–18°C as the most probable outcomes, though short-range model variability could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C. Updated guidance from the Met Office and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in the next 48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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