The Southwest Monsoon dominating Luzon continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 29–31°C range for Manila’s August 11 high, with 29°C and 30°C each at 22.5% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and intermittent heavy rains reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the 31°C August climatological average. Active 2026 Pacific typhoon season systems, including recent passages of Dolphin and localized depressions, reinforce this pattern by maintaining moist southwesterly flow and suppressing clear-sky heating episodes that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and model consensus on monsoon strength through mid-August remain the key near-term variables that could shift resolution odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 11?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 11?
29°C 23%
30°C 23%
31°C 16%
28°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
8%
27°C
8%
28°C
13%
29°C
23%
30°C
23%
31°C
16%
32°C
11%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 23%
30°C 23%
31°C 16%
28°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
25°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
26°C
$15 Vol.
8%
27°C
$2 Vol.
8%
28°C
$0 Vol.
13%
29°C
$0 Vol.
23%
30°C
$0 Vol.
23%
31°C
$0 Vol.
16%
32°C
$0 Vol.
11%
33°C
$27 Vol.
2%
34°C
$5 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The Southwest Monsoon dominating Luzon continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 29–31°C range for Manila’s August 11 high, with 29°C and 30°C each at 22.5% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and intermittent heavy rains reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the 31°C August climatological average. Active 2026 Pacific typhoon season systems, including recent passages of Dolphin and localized depressions, reinforce this pattern by maintaining moist southwesterly flow and suppressing clear-sky heating episodes that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and model consensus on monsoon strength through mid-August remain the key near-term variables that could shift resolution odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$73End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The Southwest Monsoon dominating Luzon continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 29–31°C range for Manila’s August 11 high, with 29°C and 30°C each at 22.5% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and intermittent heavy rains reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the 31°C August climatological average. Active 2026 Pacific typhoon season systems, including recent passages of Dolphin and localized depressions, reinforce this pattern by maintaining moist southwesterly flow and suppressing clear-sky heating episodes that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and model consensus on monsoon strength through mid-August remain the key near-term variables that could shift resolution odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$73End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Southwest Monsoon dominating Luzon continues to drive trader sentiment toward a narrow 29–31°C range for Manila’s August 11 high, with 29°C and 30°C each at 22.5% implied probability. Persistent cloud cover and intermittent heavy rains reduce incoming solar radiation and enhance evaporative cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the 31°C August climatological average. Active 2026 Pacific typhoon season systems, including recent passages of Dolphin and localized depressions, reinforce this pattern by maintaining moist southwesterly flow and suppressing clear-sky heating episodes that could push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA guidance and model consensus on monsoon strength through mid-August remain the key near-term variables that could shift resolution odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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