Trader consensus favors a 30°C high in Manila on August 10 at 46.5% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from PAGASA and global models showing typical southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions with daytime peaks moderated by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity. Mid-August climatology places normal maxima near 31°C, yet current early-August observations indicate stable patterns without strong tropical cyclones or clear-sky anomalies that would push readings higher. Lower probabilities for 31°C or above reflect the likelihood of convective rainfall limiting afternoon heating, while cooler outcomes remain possible if monsoon surges intensify. Updated model guidance and local station data over the next 48 hours will determine whether the market shifts toward or away from the 30°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 10?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?
30°C 47%
29°C 22%
31°C 17%
28°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
10%
28°C
14%
29°C
22%
30°C
47%
31°C
17%
32°C
2%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
2%
30°C 47%
29°C 22%
31°C 17%
28°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
24°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$26 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
10%
28°C
$0 Vol.
14%
29°C
$65 Vol.
22%
30°C
$153 Vol.
47%
31°C
$0 Vol.
17%
32°C
$12 Vol.
2%
33°C
$12 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$12 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a 30°C high in Manila on August 10 at 46.5% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from PAGASA and global models showing typical southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions with daytime peaks moderated by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity. Mid-August climatology places normal maxima near 31°C, yet current early-August observations indicate stable patterns without strong tropical cyclones or clear-sky anomalies that would push readings higher. Lower probabilities for 31°C or above reflect the likelihood of convective rainfall limiting afternoon heating, while cooler outcomes remain possible if monsoon surges intensify. Updated model guidance and local station data over the next 48 hours will determine whether the market shifts toward or away from the 30°C threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$299End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a 30°C high in Manila on August 10 at 46.5% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from PAGASA and global models showing typical southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions with daytime peaks moderated by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity. Mid-August climatology places normal maxima near 31°C, yet current early-August observations indicate stable patterns without strong tropical cyclones or clear-sky anomalies that would push readings higher. Lower probabilities for 31°C or above reflect the likelihood of convective rainfall limiting afternoon heating, while cooler outcomes remain possible if monsoon surges intensify. Updated model guidance and local station data over the next 48 hours will determine whether the market shifts toward or away from the 30°C threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$299End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 30°C high in Manila on August 10 at 46.5% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from PAGASA and global models showing typical southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions with daytime peaks moderated by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity. Mid-August climatology places normal maxima near 31°C, yet current early-August observations indicate stable patterns without strong tropical cyclones or clear-sky anomalies that would push readings higher. Lower probabilities for 31°C or above reflect the likelihood of convective rainfall limiting afternoon heating, while cooler outcomes remain possible if monsoon surges intensify. Updated model guidance and local station data over the next 48 hours will determine whether the market shifts toward or away from the 30°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions