**Persistent warm, humid summer conditions under southwest monsoon flow are positioning 27–28°C as the leading outcomes for Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on August 8, 2026.** Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts show a projected range of 28–35°C for the day, following 27–34°C the prior day, while broader seasonal outlooks indicate normal to above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend. High humidity (typically 50–90%) and cloud cover limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping nocturnal lows elevated in the urban heat island environment typical of August. Recent model consensus and short-range guidance have not introduced significant cooling factors such as a strong northeasterly surge or widespread clear skies that could push readings lower. Traders appear to be weighting the lower bound of these forecasts most heavily, with 27°C holding the plurality at 52.5% implied probability and 28°C at 34.5%, reflecting minor uncertainty in exact overnight minima between official guidance and climatological averages near 26–27°C. Upcoming HKO updates and any revisions to the 9-day forecast will be the primary near-term drivers for further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?
27°C 46%
28°C 41%
26°C 10%
29°C 5%
NEW
$16,025 Vol.
NEW
$16,025 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
4%
26°C
10%
27°C
46%
28°C
41%
29°C
5%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 46%
28°C 41%
26°C 10%
29°C 5%
NEW
$16,025 Vol.
NEW
$16,025 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
22°C or below
$598 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$613 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$683 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,615 Vol.
4%
26°C
$1,024 Vol.
10%
27°C
$2,126 Vol.
46%
28°C
$4,996 Vol.
41%
29°C
$1,451 Vol.
5%
30°C
$1,368 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$910 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$641 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent warm, humid summer conditions under southwest monsoon flow are positioning 27–28°C as the leading outcomes for Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on August 8, 2026.** Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts show a projected range of 28–35°C for the day, following 27–34°C the prior day, while broader seasonal outlooks indicate normal to above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend. High humidity (typically 50–90%) and cloud cover limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping nocturnal lows elevated in the urban heat island environment typical of August.
Recent model consensus and short-range guidance have not introduced significant cooling factors such as a strong northeasterly surge or widespread clear skies that could push readings lower. Traders appear to be weighting the lower bound of these forecasts most heavily, with 27°C holding the plurality at 52.5% implied probability and 28°C at 34.5%, reflecting minor uncertainty in exact overnight minima between official guidance and climatological averages near 26–27°C. Upcoming HKO updates and any revisions to the 9-day forecast will be the primary near-term drivers for further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16,025End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent warm, humid summer conditions under southwest monsoon flow are positioning 27–28°C as the leading outcomes for Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on August 8, 2026.** Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts show a projected range of 28–35°C for the day, following 27–34°C the prior day, while broader seasonal outlooks indicate normal to above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend. High humidity (typically 50–90%) and cloud cover limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping nocturnal lows elevated in the urban heat island environment typical of August.
Recent model consensus and short-range guidance have not introduced significant cooling factors such as a strong northeasterly surge or widespread clear skies that could push readings lower. Traders appear to be weighting the lower bound of these forecasts most heavily, with 27°C holding the plurality at 52.5% implied probability and 28°C at 34.5%, reflecting minor uncertainty in exact overnight minima between official guidance and climatological averages near 26–27°C. Upcoming HKO updates and any revisions to the 9-day forecast will be the primary near-term drivers for further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,025End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent warm, humid summer conditions under southwest monsoon flow are positioning 27–28°C as the leading outcomes for Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on August 8, 2026.** Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts show a projected range of 28–35°C for the day, following 27–34°C the prior day, while broader seasonal outlooks indicate normal to above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend. High humidity (typically 50–90%) and cloud cover limit radiative cooling overnight, keeping nocturnal lows elevated in the urban heat island environment typical of August. Recent model consensus and short-range guidance have not introduced significant cooling factors such as a strong northeasterly surge or widespread clear skies that could push readings lower. Traders appear to be weighting the lower bound of these forecasts most heavily, with 27°C holding the plurality at 52.5% implied probability and 28°C at 34.5%, reflecting minor uncertainty in exact overnight minima between official guidance and climatological averages near 26–27°C. Upcoming HKO updates and any revisions to the 9-day forecast will be the primary near-term drivers for further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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