Recent meteorological model consensus from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points to a warm air mass advecting over central Poland, supporting maximum temperatures near 30–32°C in Warsaw on August 10. This aligns with market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C and 31°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited cloud cover and weak surface winds that favor daytime heating. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages highs around 23–25°C, so current projections represent a modest positive anomaly driven by the ongoing ridge pattern. Updated short-range runs in the next 24–48 hours from national meteorological services will refine the exact peak value before resolution, with any shift in steering flow or increased moisture potentially capping temperatures near 29°C or allowing a brief push toward 33°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 10?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 10?
30°C 36%
31°C 25%
29°C 17%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
17%
30°C
36%
31°C
25%
32°C
16%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 36%
31°C 25%
29°C 17%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
26°C or below
$13 Vol.
1%
27°C
$9 Vol.
1%
28°C
$104 Vol.
5%
29°C
$34 Vol.
17%
30°C
$63 Vol.
36%
31°C
$24 Vol.
25%
32°C
$101 Vol.
16%
33°C
$27 Vol.
2%
34°C
$25 Vol.
2%
35°C
$61 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$115 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points to a warm air mass advecting over central Poland, supporting maximum temperatures near 30–32°C in Warsaw on August 10. This aligns with market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C and 31°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited cloud cover and weak surface winds that favor daytime heating. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages highs around 23–25°C, so current projections represent a modest positive anomaly driven by the ongoing ridge pattern. Updated short-range runs in the next 24–48 hours from national meteorological services will refine the exact peak value before resolution, with any shift in steering flow or increased moisture potentially capping temperatures near 29°C or allowing a brief push toward 33°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$577End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points to a warm air mass advecting over central Poland, supporting maximum temperatures near 30–32°C in Warsaw on August 10. This aligns with market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C and 31°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited cloud cover and weak surface winds that favor daytime heating. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages highs around 23–25°C, so current projections represent a modest positive anomaly driven by the ongoing ridge pattern. Updated short-range runs in the next 24–48 hours from national meteorological services will refine the exact peak value before resolution, with any shift in steering flow or increased moisture potentially capping temperatures near 29°C or allowing a brief push toward 33°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$577End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological model consensus from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points to a warm air mass advecting over central Poland, supporting maximum temperatures near 30–32°C in Warsaw on August 10. This aligns with market-implied probabilities favoring 30°C and 31°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing limited cloud cover and weak surface winds that favor daytime heating. Historical August climatology for Warsaw averages highs around 23–25°C, so current projections represent a modest positive anomaly driven by the ongoing ridge pattern. Updated short-range runs in the next 24–48 hours from national meteorological services will refine the exact peak value before resolution, with any shift in steering flow or increased moisture potentially capping temperatures near 29°C or allowing a brief push toward 33°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions