Recent meteorological model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles points to stable anticyclonic conditions over the Marmara region, with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring a daytime maximum of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 10. These outcomes dominate trader positioning because they align closely with long-term August climatology, where mean highs range 27–29°C according to Turkish State Meteorological Service records. Persistent summer high pressure supports warm advection without significant instability or moisture influx that could drive deviations. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and official Turkish forecasts will provide the next key updates, as small shifts in steering patterns or sea-breeze strength could alter peak readings within the narrow 26–29°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 10?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 10?
28°C 45%
27°C 33%
29°C 19%
31°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
4%
27°C
33%
28°C
45%
29°C
19%
30°C
4%
31°C
7%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
2%
28°C 45%
27°C 33%
29°C 19%
31°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
23°C or below
$99 Vol.
1%
24°C
$28 Vol.
1%
25°C
$22 Vol.
3%
26°C
$30 Vol.
4%
27°C
$10 Vol.
33%
28°C
$17 Vol.
45%
29°C
$0 Vol.
19%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$5 Vol.
7%
32°C
$5 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles points to stable anticyclonic conditions over the Marmara region, with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring a daytime maximum of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 10. These outcomes dominate trader positioning because they align closely with long-term August climatology, where mean highs range 27–29°C according to Turkish State Meteorological Service records. Persistent summer high pressure supports warm advection without significant instability or moisture influx that could drive deviations. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and official Turkish forecasts will provide the next key updates, as small shifts in steering patterns or sea-breeze strength could alter peak readings within the narrow 26–29°C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$220End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles points to stable anticyclonic conditions over the Marmara region, with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring a daytime maximum of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 10. These outcomes dominate trader positioning because they align closely with long-term August climatology, where mean highs range 27–29°C according to Turkish State Meteorological Service records. Persistent summer high pressure supports warm advection without significant instability or moisture influx that could drive deviations. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and official Turkish forecasts will provide the next key updates, as small shifts in steering patterns or sea-breeze strength could alter peak readings within the narrow 26–29°C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$220End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological model consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles points to stable anticyclonic conditions over the Marmara region, with light northerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring a daytime maximum of 27–28°C in Istanbul on August 10. These outcomes dominate trader positioning because they align closely with long-term August climatology, where mean highs range 27–29°C according to Turkish State Meteorological Service records. Persistent summer high pressure supports warm advection without significant instability or moisture influx that could drive deviations. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and official Turkish forecasts will provide the next key updates, as small shifts in steering patterns or sea-breeze strength could alter peak readings within the narrow 26–29°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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