Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate a building high-pressure ridge over northwest Europe, promoting clear skies, light southeasterly flow, and strong diurnal heating across the Netherlands. This setup favors peak temperatures in Amsterdam on August 10 near 23–24 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Key differentiating factors include small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing depth, the precise timing of any thin high cloud, and minor advection of warmer continental air versus localized sea-breeze moderation from the North Sea. Historical August maxima average 21–22 °C, so current model consensus reflects an above-normal but not extreme episode. Updated guidance on August 9 will refine the exact maximum and could shift probabilities among the tightly clustered 22–24 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 10?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 10?
23°C 36%
24°C 29%
22°C 22%
21°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
8%
22°C
22%
23°C
36%
24°C
29%
25°C
6%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 36%
24°C 29%
22°C 22%
21°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
19°C or below
$25 Vol.
1%
20°C
$284 Vol.
2%
21°C
$21 Vol.
8%
22°C
$248 Vol.
22%
23°C
$47 Vol.
36%
24°C
$10 Vol.
29%
25°C
$8 Vol.
6%
26°C
$116 Vol.
3%
27°C
$29 Vol.
1%
28°C
$15 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$38 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate a building high-pressure ridge over northwest Europe, promoting clear skies, light southeasterly flow, and strong diurnal heating across the Netherlands. This setup favors peak temperatures in Amsterdam on August 10 near 23–24 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Key differentiating factors include small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing depth, the precise timing of any thin high cloud, and minor advection of warmer continental air versus localized sea-breeze moderation from the North Sea. Historical August maxima average 21–22 °C, so current model consensus reflects an above-normal but not extreme episode. Updated guidance on August 9 will refine the exact maximum and could shift probabilities among the tightly clustered 22–24 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$842End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate a building high-pressure ridge over northwest Europe, promoting clear skies, light southeasterly flow, and strong diurnal heating across the Netherlands. This setup favors peak temperatures in Amsterdam on August 10 near 23–24 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Key differentiating factors include small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing depth, the precise timing of any thin high cloud, and minor advection of warmer continental air versus localized sea-breeze moderation from the North Sea. Historical August maxima average 21–22 °C, so current model consensus reflects an above-normal but not extreme episode. Updated guidance on August 9 will refine the exact maximum and could shift probabilities among the tightly clustered 22–24 °C outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$842End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate a building high-pressure ridge over northwest Europe, promoting clear skies, light southeasterly flow, and strong diurnal heating across the Netherlands. This setup favors peak temperatures in Amsterdam on August 10 near 23–24 °C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Key differentiating factors include small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing depth, the precise timing of any thin high cloud, and minor advection of warmer continental air versus localized sea-breeze moderation from the North Sea. Historical August maxima average 21–22 °C, so current model consensus reflects an above-normal but not extreme episode. Updated guidance on August 9 will refine the exact maximum and could shift probabilities among the tightly clustered 22–24 °C outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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