Hong Kong's forecast for August 9 centers on a mainly fine day with maximum temperatures expected near 35–36°C, according to the Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day outlook of 29–36°C and supporting global model guidance. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these thresholds because recent runs show limited cloud cover and light winds allowing strong solar heating, while isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms could suppress peaks below 37°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and current synoptic patterns add modest upside risk, yet typical August humidity and convective activity create genuine uncertainty around the exact high. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?
35°C 39%
36°C 31%
37°C 19%
34°C 11%
NEW
$11,585 Vol.
NEW
$11,585 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
3%
34°C
11%
35°C
39%
36°C
31%
37°C
19%
38°C
4%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 39%
36°C 31%
37°C 19%
34°C 11%
NEW
$11,585 Vol.
NEW
$11,585 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
31°C or below
$598 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,762 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$957 Vol.
3%
34°C
$1,221 Vol.
11%
35°C
$2,002 Vol.
39%
36°C
$1,242 Vol.
31%
37°C
$1,147 Vol.
19%
38°C
$1,610 Vol.
4%
39°C
$401 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$382 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$390 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's forecast for August 9 centers on a mainly fine day with maximum temperatures expected near 35–36°C, according to the Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day outlook of 29–36°C and supporting global model guidance. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these thresholds because recent runs show limited cloud cover and light winds allowing strong solar heating, while isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms could suppress peaks below 37°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and current synoptic patterns add modest upside risk, yet typical August humidity and convective activity create genuine uncertainty around the exact high. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$11,585End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's forecast for August 9 centers on a mainly fine day with maximum temperatures expected near 35–36°C, according to the Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day outlook of 29–36°C and supporting global model guidance. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these thresholds because recent runs show limited cloud cover and light winds allowing strong solar heating, while isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms could suppress peaks below 37°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and current synoptic patterns add modest upside risk, yet typical August humidity and convective activity create genuine uncertainty around the exact high. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,585End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong's forecast for August 9 centers on a mainly fine day with maximum temperatures expected near 35–36°C, according to the Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day outlook of 29–36°C and supporting global model guidance. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these thresholds because recent runs show limited cloud cover and light winds allowing strong solar heating, while isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms could suppress peaks below 37°C. Above-normal seasonal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and current synoptic patterns add modest upside risk, yet typical August humidity and convective activity create genuine uncertainty around the exact high. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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