Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate peak temperatures clustered near 31–32°C in Paris on August 11, underpinning the narrow market-implied odds between those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe is expected to reduce cloud cover and enhance daytime solar heating, while subtle differences in low-level wind trajectories and boundary-layer moisture among GFS and ECMWF runs create the primary uncertainty in maximum values. Mid-August climatology averages around 26°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth with a realistic range driven by model spread. New model cycles and surface observations in the next 48 hours will further narrow the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 11?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 11?
32°C 35%
31°C 31%
30°C 20%
33°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
20%
31°C
31%
32°C
35%
33°C
13%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 35%
31°C 31%
30°C 20%
33°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
28°C or below
$4,592 Vol.
1%
29°C
$92 Vol.
3%
30°C
$1,392 Vol.
20%
31°C
$353 Vol.
31%
32°C
$214 Vol.
35%
33°C
$129 Vol.
13%
34°C
$92 Vol.
3%
35°C
$109 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$52 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$99 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$109 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate peak temperatures clustered near 31–32°C in Paris on August 11, underpinning the narrow market-implied odds between those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe is expected to reduce cloud cover and enhance daytime solar heating, while subtle differences in low-level wind trajectories and boundary-layer moisture among GFS and ECMWF runs create the primary uncertainty in maximum values. Mid-August climatology averages around 26°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth with a realistic range driven by model spread. New model cycles and surface observations in the next 48 hours will further narrow the consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$7,232End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate peak temperatures clustered near 31–32°C in Paris on August 11, underpinning the narrow market-implied odds between those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe is expected to reduce cloud cover and enhance daytime solar heating, while subtle differences in low-level wind trajectories and boundary-layer moisture among GFS and ECMWF runs create the primary uncertainty in maximum values. Mid-August climatology averages around 26°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth with a realistic range driven by model spread. New model cycles and surface observations in the next 48 hours will further narrow the consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,232End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate peak temperatures clustered near 31–32°C in Paris on August 11, underpinning the narrow market-implied odds between those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe is expected to reduce cloud cover and enhance daytime solar heating, while subtle differences in low-level wind trajectories and boundary-layer moisture among GFS and ECMWF runs create the primary uncertainty in maximum values. Mid-August climatology averages around 26°C, so current guidance reflects above-normal warmth with a realistic range driven by model spread. New model cycles and surface observations in the next 48 hours will further narrow the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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