**Current forecasts from sources like timeanddate.com and broader seasonal outlooks position Paris for a high near 34–35°C on August 12, 2026, under sunny conditions with limited cloud cover and light winds.** This aligns with the market’s concentration of probability on 34–36°C outcomes (roughly 90% combined implied probability), as models show daytime heating building from overnight lows around 18–20°C amid persistent high pressure. Recent European heatwave patterns from June 2026, which delivered record Paris temperatures above 40°C, have heightened trader awareness of warm anomalies, though mid-August climatology typically averages highs near 25°C. Updated model runs emphasize clear skies and southerly flow as the main drivers elevating readings several degrees above normal without reaching extreme heatwave thresholds. Météo-France monitoring and short-range ensembles will provide the next key updates, with any shifts in cloud or advection patterns potentially narrowing the range toward 33°C or pushing toward 36°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 12?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 12?
35°C 48%
34°C 25%
36°C 18%
33°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
9%
34°C
25%
35°C
48%
36°C
18%
37°C
4%
38°C
2%
39°C or higher
1%
35°C 48%
34°C 25%
36°C 18%
33°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
$39 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$13 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$13 Vol.
1%
32°C
$13 Vol.
3%
33°C
$95 Vol.
9%
34°C
$87 Vol.
25%
35°C
$295 Vol.
48%
36°C
$69 Vol.
18%
37°C
$33 Vol.
4%
38°C
$37 Vol.
2%
39°C or higher
$13 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from sources like timeanddate.com and broader seasonal outlooks position Paris for a high near 34–35°C on August 12, 2026, under sunny conditions with limited cloud cover and light winds.** This aligns with the market’s concentration of probability on 34–36°C outcomes (roughly 90% combined implied probability), as models show daytime heating building from overnight lows around 18–20°C amid persistent high pressure.
Recent European heatwave patterns from June 2026, which delivered record Paris temperatures above 40°C, have heightened trader awareness of warm anomalies, though mid-August climatology typically averages highs near 25°C. Updated model runs emphasize clear skies and southerly flow as the main drivers elevating readings several degrees above normal without reaching extreme heatwave thresholds. Météo-France monitoring and short-range ensembles will provide the next key updates, with any shifts in cloud or advection patterns potentially narrowing the range toward 33°C or pushing toward 36°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$707End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from sources like timeanddate.com and broader seasonal outlooks position Paris for a high near 34–35°C on August 12, 2026, under sunny conditions with limited cloud cover and light winds.** This aligns with the market’s concentration of probability on 34–36°C outcomes (roughly 90% combined implied probability), as models show daytime heating building from overnight lows around 18–20°C amid persistent high pressure.
Recent European heatwave patterns from June 2026, which delivered record Paris temperatures above 40°C, have heightened trader awareness of warm anomalies, though mid-August climatology typically averages highs near 25°C. Updated model runs emphasize clear skies and southerly flow as the main drivers elevating readings several degrees above normal without reaching extreme heatwave thresholds. Météo-France monitoring and short-range ensembles will provide the next key updates, with any shifts in cloud or advection patterns potentially narrowing the range toward 33°C or pushing toward 36°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$707End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from sources like timeanddate.com and broader seasonal outlooks position Paris for a high near 34–35°C on August 12, 2026, under sunny conditions with limited cloud cover and light winds.** This aligns with the market’s concentration of probability on 34–36°C outcomes (roughly 90% combined implied probability), as models show daytime heating building from overnight lows around 18–20°C amid persistent high pressure. Recent European heatwave patterns from June 2026, which delivered record Paris temperatures above 40°C, have heightened trader awareness of warm anomalies, though mid-August climatology typically averages highs near 25°C. Updated model runs emphasize clear skies and southerly flow as the main drivers elevating readings several degrees above normal without reaching extreme heatwave thresholds. Météo-France monitoring and short-range ensembles will provide the next key updates, with any shifts in cloud or advection patterns potentially narrowing the range toward 33°C or pushing toward 36°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions