Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a daytime high near 33°C on August 12 amid southwest monsoon conditions, yet persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and 30% rain probability are expected to moderate peak readings. International models align with this uncertainty, projecting maxima of 29–31°C as the most probable range given typical August humidity levels above 80% and weak steering winds that limit rapid warming. These factors explain the near-even trader weighting between 29°C and 30°C outcomes, with lower odds for 32°C or higher reflecting historical suppression of extremes during active monsoon periods. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA bulletin will likely refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily maximum measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 12?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 12?
29°C 28%
30°C 28%
31°C 18%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
10%
28°C
12%
29°C
28%
30°C
28%
31°C
18%
32°C
12%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
2%
29°C 28%
30°C 28%
31°C 18%
32°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$12 Vol.
1%
26°C
$12 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
10%
28°C
$4 Vol.
12%
29°C
$0 Vol.
28%
30°C
$0 Vol.
28%
31°C
$0 Vol.
18%
32°C
$0 Vol.
12%
33°C
$12 Vol.
3%
34°C or higher
$50 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a daytime high near 33°C on August 12 amid southwest monsoon conditions, yet persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and 30% rain probability are expected to moderate peak readings. International models align with this uncertainty, projecting maxima of 29–31°C as the most probable range given typical August humidity levels above 80% and weak steering winds that limit rapid warming. These factors explain the near-even trader weighting between 29°C and 30°C outcomes, with lower odds for 32°C or higher reflecting historical suppression of extremes during active monsoon periods. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA bulletin will likely refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily maximum measurement.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$102End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a daytime high near 33°C on August 12 amid southwest monsoon conditions, yet persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and 30% rain probability are expected to moderate peak readings. International models align with this uncertainty, projecting maxima of 29–31°C as the most probable range given typical August humidity levels above 80% and weak steering winds that limit rapid warming. These factors explain the near-even trader weighting between 29°C and 30°C outcomes, with lower odds for 32°C or higher reflecting historical suppression of extremes during active monsoon periods. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA bulletin will likely refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily maximum measurement.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$102End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila indicate a daytime high near 33°C on August 12 amid southwest monsoon conditions, yet persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and 30% rain probability are expected to moderate peak readings. International models align with this uncertainty, projecting maxima of 29–31°C as the most probable range given typical August humidity levels above 80% and weak steering winds that limit rapid warming. These factors explain the near-even trader weighting between 29°C and 30°C outcomes, with lower odds for 32°C or higher reflecting historical suppression of extremes during active monsoon periods. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA bulletin will likely refine resolution probabilities ahead of the daily maximum measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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