Recent National Weather Service model guidance indicates a moderating high-pressure system over the Midwest will likely produce a Chicago high temperature in the low-to-mid 80s on August 9. Lake Michigan’s cool onshore flow and potential afternoon cloud cover or light winds introduce key variability that keeps the 80–81 °F, 82–83 °F, and 84–85 °F bins nearly tied in trader positioning. Climatological normals place the daily high near 83 °F, while ensemble spread reflects modest uncertainty from steering patterns and any late-day convection. Updated forecast discussions and next model runs will clarify whether boundary-layer mixing or insolation pushes the peak into the mid-80s or keeps it capped lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 9?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 9?
80-81°F 25%
82-83°F 24%
84-85°F 16%
78-79°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
77°F or below
8%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
24%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
6%
90-91°F
3%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
2%
96°F or higher
1%
80-81°F 25%
82-83°F 24%
84-85°F 16%
78-79°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
77°F or below
$1,227 Vol.
8%
78-79°F
$203 Vol.
13%
80-81°F
$56 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$48 Vol.
24%
84-85°F
$111 Vol.
16%
86-87°F
$167 Vol.
11%
88-89°F
$168 Vol.
6%
90-91°F
$53 Vol.
3%
92-93°F
$43 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$17 Vol.
2%
96°F or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance indicates a moderating high-pressure system over the Midwest will likely produce a Chicago high temperature in the low-to-mid 80s on August 9. Lake Michigan’s cool onshore flow and potential afternoon cloud cover or light winds introduce key variability that keeps the 80–81 °F, 82–83 °F, and 84–85 °F bins nearly tied in trader positioning. Climatological normals place the daily high near 83 °F, while ensemble spread reflects modest uncertainty from steering patterns and any late-day convection. Updated forecast discussions and next model runs will clarify whether boundary-layer mixing or insolation pushes the peak into the mid-80s or keeps it capped lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$2,104End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance indicates a moderating high-pressure system over the Midwest will likely produce a Chicago high temperature in the low-to-mid 80s on August 9. Lake Michigan’s cool onshore flow and potential afternoon cloud cover or light winds introduce key variability that keeps the 80–81 °F, 82–83 °F, and 84–85 °F bins nearly tied in trader positioning. Climatological normals place the daily high near 83 °F, while ensemble spread reflects modest uncertainty from steering patterns and any late-day convection. Updated forecast discussions and next model runs will clarify whether boundary-layer mixing or insolation pushes the peak into the mid-80s or keeps it capped lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,104End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service model guidance indicates a moderating high-pressure system over the Midwest will likely produce a Chicago high temperature in the low-to-mid 80s on August 9. Lake Michigan’s cool onshore flow and potential afternoon cloud cover or light winds introduce key variability that keeps the 80–81 °F, 82–83 °F, and 84–85 °F bins nearly tied in trader positioning. Climatological normals place the daily high near 83 °F, while ensemble spread reflects modest uncertainty from steering patterns and any late-day convection. Updated forecast discussions and next model runs will clarify whether boundary-layer mixing or insolation pushes the peak into the mid-80s or keeps it capped lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions