Traders see 37–38°C as the most probable high for Guangzhou on August 12 because current model runs and extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate project daytime maxima in that range amid ongoing subtropical heat. Persistent high-pressure patterns, elevated sea-surface temperatures in the South China Sea, and typical August monsoon moisture favor strong daytime heating with highs often reaching the mid- to upper-30s Celsius. Recent national outlooks warning of continued heat waves through mid-August reinforce this view, while mixed shorter-range guidance showing possible cloud cover or showers introduces modest downside risk captured in the 36°C and 39°C prices. Historical climatology places August averages near 33°C, so the market-implied odds reflect both the seasonal baseline and the current elevated thermal setup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 12?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 12?
38°C 46%
37°C 33%
39°C 12%
41°C or higher 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
10%
35°C
6%
36°C
8%
37°C
33%
38°C
46%
39°C
12%
40°C
8%
41°C or higher
11%
38°C 46%
37°C 33%
39°C 12%
41°C or higher 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
31°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$27 Vol.
10%
35°C
$12 Vol.
6%
36°C
$0 Vol.
8%
37°C
$3 Vol.
33%
38°C
$65 Vol.
46%
39°C
$0 Vol.
12%
40°C
$0 Vol.
8%
41°C or higher
$37 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 37–38°C as the most probable high for Guangzhou on August 12 because current model runs and extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate project daytime maxima in that range amid ongoing subtropical heat. Persistent high-pressure patterns, elevated sea-surface temperatures in the South China Sea, and typical August monsoon moisture favor strong daytime heating with highs often reaching the mid- to upper-30s Celsius. Recent national outlooks warning of continued heat waves through mid-August reinforce this view, while mixed shorter-range guidance showing possible cloud cover or showers introduces modest downside risk captured in the 36°C and 39°C prices. Historical climatology places August averages near 33°C, so the market-implied odds reflect both the seasonal baseline and the current elevated thermal setup.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$179End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 37–38°C as the most probable high for Guangzhou on August 12 because current model runs and extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate project daytime maxima in that range amid ongoing subtropical heat. Persistent high-pressure patterns, elevated sea-surface temperatures in the South China Sea, and typical August monsoon moisture favor strong daytime heating with highs often reaching the mid- to upper-30s Celsius. Recent national outlooks warning of continued heat waves through mid-August reinforce this view, while mixed shorter-range guidance showing possible cloud cover or showers introduces modest downside risk captured in the 36°C and 39°C prices. Historical climatology places August averages near 33°C, so the market-implied odds reflect both the seasonal baseline and the current elevated thermal setup.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$179End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 37–38°C as the most probable high for Guangzhou on August 12 because current model runs and extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate project daytime maxima in that range amid ongoing subtropical heat. Persistent high-pressure patterns, elevated sea-surface temperatures in the South China Sea, and typical August monsoon moisture favor strong daytime heating with highs often reaching the mid- to upper-30s Celsius. Recent national outlooks warning of continued heat waves through mid-August reinforce this view, while mixed shorter-range guidance showing possible cloud cover or showers introduces modest downside risk captured in the 36°C and 39°C prices. Historical climatology places August averages near 33°C, so the market-implied odds reflect both the seasonal baseline and the current elevated thermal setup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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