Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution model runs anchor trader sentiment by projecting a Paris minimum temperature on August 12 most likely between 17–19°C. A weakening high-pressure system with moderate westerly flow and variable overnight cloud cover limits radiative cooling, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around these values. Typical August climatology at the Montsouris station (normals near 15–16°C) provides the baseline, while the urban heat-island effect elevates readings slightly. Minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, exact frontal timing, and model spread on low-level stability explain why 18°C and 19°C probabilities remain nearly equal, with 20°C as a distant third. Updated model guidance and any late-day observations will refine the final outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 12?
19°C 43%
18°C 39%
20°C 8%
17°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
8%
18°C
39%
19°C
43%
20°C
8%
21°C
3%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 43%
18°C 39%
20°C 8%
17°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
14°C or below
$51 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$157 Vol.
1%
16°C
$75 Vol.
4%
17°C
$290 Vol.
8%
18°C
$106 Vol.
39%
19°C
$468 Vol.
43%
20°C
$29 Vol.
8%
21°C
$54 Vol.
3%
22°C
$25 Vol.
1%
23°C
$38 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$39 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution model runs anchor trader sentiment by projecting a Paris minimum temperature on August 12 most likely between 17–19°C. A weakening high-pressure system with moderate westerly flow and variable overnight cloud cover limits radiative cooling, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around these values. Typical August climatology at the Montsouris station (normals near 15–16°C) provides the baseline, while the urban heat-island effect elevates readings slightly. Minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, exact frontal timing, and model spread on low-level stability explain why 18°C and 19°C probabilities remain nearly equal, with 20°C as a distant third. Updated model guidance and any late-day observations will refine the final outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,333End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution model runs anchor trader sentiment by projecting a Paris minimum temperature on August 12 most likely between 17–19°C. A weakening high-pressure system with moderate westerly flow and variable overnight cloud cover limits radiative cooling, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around these values. Typical August climatology at the Montsouris station (normals near 15–16°C) provides the baseline, while the urban heat-island effect elevates readings slightly. Minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, exact frontal timing, and model spread on low-level stability explain why 18°C and 19°C probabilities remain nearly equal, with 20°C as a distant third. Updated model guidance and any late-day observations will refine the final outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,333End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution model runs anchor trader sentiment by projecting a Paris minimum temperature on August 12 most likely between 17–19°C. A weakening high-pressure system with moderate westerly flow and variable overnight cloud cover limits radiative cooling, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around these values. Typical August climatology at the Montsouris station (normals near 15–16°C) provides the baseline, while the urban heat-island effect elevates readings slightly. Minor variations in boundary-layer moisture, exact frontal timing, and model spread on low-level stability explain why 18°C and 19°C probabilities remain nearly equal, with 20°C as a distant third. Updated model guidance and any late-day observations will refine the final outcome before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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