Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a mostly sunny pattern on August 12 under lingering high pressure, with forecast highs centered in the mid-to-upper 80s amid dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. This setup supports surface temperatures peaking near or slightly above the long-term Central Park August average of 83 °F, while limiting extreme heat due to modest west-to-northwest flow and only isolated shower chances after midnight. Trader consensus reflected in the 86–87 °F (42.5 %) and 88–89 °F (31.5 %) bins aligns with the latest deterministic and statistical guidance that shows limited upside beyond 90 °F absent stronger southerly advection or delayed cloud cover. Updated model runs tomorrow morning and the NWS afternoon forecast discussion will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 12?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 12?
86-87°F 42%
88-89°F 33%
84-85°F 21%
90-91°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
42%
88-89°F
33%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 42%
88-89°F 33%
84-85°F 21%
90-91°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
79°F or below
$176 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$24 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$108 Vol.
3%
84-85°F
$780 Vol.
21%
86-87°F
$292 Vol.
42%
88-89°F
$628 Vol.
33%
90-91°F
$250 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$138 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$175 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$123 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$177 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a mostly sunny pattern on August 12 under lingering high pressure, with forecast highs centered in the mid-to-upper 80s amid dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. This setup supports surface temperatures peaking near or slightly above the long-term Central Park August average of 83 °F, while limiting extreme heat due to modest west-to-northwest flow and only isolated shower chances after midnight. Trader consensus reflected in the 86–87 °F (42.5 %) and 88–89 °F (31.5 %) bins aligns with the latest deterministic and statistical guidance that shows limited upside beyond 90 °F absent stronger southerly advection or delayed cloud cover. Updated model runs tomorrow morning and the NWS afternoon forecast discussion will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$2,871End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a mostly sunny pattern on August 12 under lingering high pressure, with forecast highs centered in the mid-to-upper 80s amid dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. This setup supports surface temperatures peaking near or slightly above the long-term Central Park August average of 83 °F, while limiting extreme heat due to modest west-to-northwest flow and only isolated shower chances after midnight. Trader consensus reflected in the 86–87 °F (42.5 %) and 88–89 °F (31.5 %) bins aligns with the latest deterministic and statistical guidance that shows limited upside beyond 90 °F absent stronger southerly advection or delayed cloud cover. Updated model runs tomorrow morning and the NWS afternoon forecast discussion will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,871End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a mostly sunny pattern on August 12 under lingering high pressure, with forecast highs centered in the mid-to-upper 80s amid dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. This setup supports surface temperatures peaking near or slightly above the long-term Central Park August average of 83 °F, while limiting extreme heat due to modest west-to-northwest flow and only isolated shower chances after midnight. Trader consensus reflected in the 86–87 °F (42.5 %) and 88–89 °F (31.5 %) bins aligns with the latest deterministic and statistical guidance that shows limited upside beyond 90 °F absent stronger southerly advection or delayed cloud cover. Updated model runs tomorrow morning and the NWS afternoon forecast discussion will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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