Current ensemble forecasts for Shanghai point to an overnight low near 26–27°C on August 13, driving the near-even split between those two outcomes in the market. Typical late-summer subtropical conditions—high humidity near 80 percent, light winds, and periods of cloud cover or light rain—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep minimum temperatures from falling much below recent climatological averages of 25–26°C. Small differences in forecast timing of showers or thickness of the marine layer explain the tight spread among 25–28°C probabilities, while lower outcomes would require clearer skies and stronger northerly flow not currently favored in guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration. Updated model runs overnight and early on the 12th will likely refine these ranges ahead of the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?
26°C 43%
27°C 36%
28°C 13%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
5%
23°C
5%
24°C
7%
25°C
11%
26°C
41%
27°C
36%
28°C
10%
29°C
10%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
4%
26°C 43%
27°C 36%
28°C 13%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
21°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$12 Vol.
5%
23°C
$0 Vol.
5%
24°C
$0 Vol.
7%
25°C
$0 Vol.
11%
26°C
$41 Vol.
41%
27°C
$105 Vol.
36%
28°C
$20 Vol.
10%
29°C
$20 Vol.
10%
30°C
$30 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$12 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Shanghai point to an overnight low near 26–27°C on August 13, driving the near-even split between those two outcomes in the market. Typical late-summer subtropical conditions—high humidity near 80 percent, light winds, and periods of cloud cover or light rain—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep minimum temperatures from falling much below recent climatological averages of 25–26°C. Small differences in forecast timing of showers or thickness of the marine layer explain the tight spread among 25–28°C probabilities, while lower outcomes would require clearer skies and stronger northerly flow not currently favored in guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration. Updated model runs overnight and early on the 12th will likely refine these ranges ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$250End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Shanghai point to an overnight low near 26–27°C on August 13, driving the near-even split between those two outcomes in the market. Typical late-summer subtropical conditions—high humidity near 80 percent, light winds, and periods of cloud cover or light rain—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep minimum temperatures from falling much below recent climatological averages of 25–26°C. Small differences in forecast timing of showers or thickness of the marine layer explain the tight spread among 25–28°C probabilities, while lower outcomes would require clearer skies and stronger northerly flow not currently favored in guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration. Updated model runs overnight and early on the 12th will likely refine these ranges ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$250End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts for Shanghai point to an overnight low near 26–27°C on August 13, driving the near-even split between those two outcomes in the market. Typical late-summer subtropical conditions—high humidity near 80 percent, light winds, and periods of cloud cover or light rain—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep minimum temperatures from falling much below recent climatological averages of 25–26°C. Small differences in forecast timing of showers or thickness of the marine layer explain the tight spread among 25–28°C probabilities, while lower outcomes would require clearer skies and stronger northerly flow not currently favored in guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration. Updated model runs overnight and early on the 12th will likely refine these ranges ahead of the observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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