Current forecast guidance for Wellington points to a maximum temperature on August 11 likely falling between 12°C and 13°C, with market odds reflecting the narrow spread between these outcomes. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the region favors near-average winter conditions, while local model runs indicate possible southerly flow and increased cloud cover that could suppress daytime warming. Typical August highs average near 13°C, but short-term steering patterns and frontal passages introduce variability that differentiates the 12°C versus 13°C scenarios. Updated MetService and international model runs in the next 48 hours will clarify any intensification of these factors ahead of the daily high measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 11?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11?
12°C 49%
13°C 41%
11°C 10%
14°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
10%
12°C
49%
13°C
41%
14°C
5%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 49%
13°C 41%
11°C 10%
14°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
6°C or below
$503 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$501 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$479 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$22 Vol.
2%
10°C
$27 Vol.
2%
11°C
$349 Vol.
10%
12°C
$444 Vol.
49%
13°C
$356 Vol.
41%
14°C
$331 Vol.
5%
15°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$249 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance for Wellington points to a maximum temperature on August 11 likely falling between 12°C and 13°C, with market odds reflecting the narrow spread between these outcomes. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the region favors near-average winter conditions, while local model runs indicate possible southerly flow and increased cloud cover that could suppress daytime warming. Typical August highs average near 13°C, but short-term steering patterns and frontal passages introduce variability that differentiates the 12°C versus 13°C scenarios. Updated MetService and international model runs in the next 48 hours will clarify any intensification of these factors ahead of the daily high measurement.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$3,272End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance for Wellington points to a maximum temperature on August 11 likely falling between 12°C and 13°C, with market odds reflecting the narrow spread between these outcomes. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the region favors near-average winter conditions, while local model runs indicate possible southerly flow and increased cloud cover that could suppress daytime warming. Typical August highs average near 13°C, but short-term steering patterns and frontal passages introduce variability that differentiates the 12°C versus 13°C scenarios. Updated MetService and international model runs in the next 48 hours will clarify any intensification of these factors ahead of the daily high measurement.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,272End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance for Wellington points to a maximum temperature on August 11 likely falling between 12°C and 13°C, with market odds reflecting the narrow spread between these outcomes. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for the region favors near-average winter conditions, while local model runs indicate possible southerly flow and increased cloud cover that could suppress daytime warming. Typical August highs average near 13°C, but short-term steering patterns and frontal passages introduce variability that differentiates the 12°C versus 13°C scenarios. Updated MetService and international model runs in the next 48 hours will clarify any intensification of these factors ahead of the daily high measurement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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