Official AEMET forecasts for Madrid project maximum temperatures of 36–38°C on August 11 under persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and light winds that limit cloud cover and convective cooling. These conditions align closely with the market's leading outcomes at 37°C (55.5%) and 38°C (35.5%), as numerical weather models show limited day-to-day variability in the central Iberian Peninsula's summer regime. Recent observations confirm regional highs in the mid-30s, with no incoming Atlantic fronts or significant moisture expected to moderate readings before the target date. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima, particularly regarding any subtle shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 11?
37°C 51%
38°C 33%
36°C 11%
39°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
2%
36°C
11%
37°C
51%
38°C
33%
39°C
5%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
37°C 51%
38°C 33%
36°C 11%
39°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
32°C or below
$42 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$82 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$102 Vol.
2%
36°C
$132 Vol.
11%
37°C
$256 Vol.
51%
38°C
$238 Vol.
33%
39°C
$52 Vol.
5%
40°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$85 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official AEMET forecasts for Madrid project maximum temperatures of 36–38°C on August 11 under persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and light winds that limit cloud cover and convective cooling. These conditions align closely with the market's leading outcomes at 37°C (55.5%) and 38°C (35.5%), as numerical weather models show limited day-to-day variability in the central Iberian Peninsula's summer regime. Recent observations confirm regional highs in the mid-30s, with no incoming Atlantic fronts or significant moisture expected to moderate readings before the target date. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima, particularly regarding any subtle shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$1,093End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official AEMET forecasts for Madrid project maximum temperatures of 36–38°C on August 11 under persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and light winds that limit cloud cover and convective cooling. These conditions align closely with the market's leading outcomes at 37°C (55.5%) and 38°C (35.5%), as numerical weather models show limited day-to-day variability in the central Iberian Peninsula's summer regime. Recent observations confirm regional highs in the mid-30s, with no incoming Atlantic fronts or significant moisture expected to moderate readings before the target date. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima, particularly regarding any subtle shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,093End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official AEMET forecasts for Madrid project maximum temperatures of 36–38°C on August 11 under persistent high-pressure systems, clear skies, and light winds that limit cloud cover and convective cooling. These conditions align closely with the market's leading outcomes at 37°C (55.5%) and 38°C (35.5%), as numerical weather models show limited day-to-day variability in the central Iberian Peninsula's summer regime. Recent observations confirm regional highs in the mid-30s, with no incoming Atlantic fronts or significant moisture expected to moderate readings before the target date. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine exact maxima, particularly regarding any subtle shifts in 850 hPa temperatures or boundary-layer mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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