Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a peak temperature near 89°F in New York City on August 11, driven by moderate southerly flow under a Bermuda High ridge and partly to mostly sunny conditions with limited cloud cover or precipitation. This aligns with climatological August averages of 83°F at Central Park while reflecting the Climate Prediction Center’s warmer-than-normal outlook for the month. Ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects, keeping the bulk of implied probability in the 88–93°F range and limiting tail risk above 95°F absent a stronger ridge build or delayed sea breeze.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 11?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?
90-91°F 41%
88-89°F 29%
92-93°F 25%
86-87°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
83°F or below
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
6%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
41%
92-93°F
25%
94-95°F
4%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
1%
100-101°F
<1%
102°F or higher
<1%
90-91°F 41%
88-89°F 29%
92-93°F 25%
86-87°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
83°F or below
$194 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$192 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$364 Vol.
6%
88-89°F
$318 Vol.
29%
90-91°F
$298 Vol.
41%
92-93°F
$1,233 Vol.
25%
94-95°F
$289 Vol.
4%
96-97°F
$142 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$230 Vol.
1%
100-101°F
$212 Vol.
<1%
102°F or higher
$273 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a peak temperature near 89°F in New York City on August 11, driven by moderate southerly flow under a Bermuda High ridge and partly to mostly sunny conditions with limited cloud cover or precipitation. This aligns with climatological August averages of 83°F at Central Park while reflecting the Climate Prediction Center’s warmer-than-normal outlook for the month. Ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects, keeping the bulk of implied probability in the 88–93°F range and limiting tail risk above 95°F absent a stronger ridge build or delayed sea breeze.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$3,688End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a peak temperature near 89°F in New York City on August 11, driven by moderate southerly flow under a Bermuda High ridge and partly to mostly sunny conditions with limited cloud cover or precipitation. This aligns with climatological August averages of 83°F at Central Park while reflecting the Climate Prediction Center’s warmer-than-normal outlook for the month. Ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects, keeping the bulk of implied probability in the 88–93°F range and limiting tail risk above 95°F absent a stronger ridge build or delayed sea breeze.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,688End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a peak temperature near 89°F in New York City on August 11, driven by moderate southerly flow under a Bermuda High ridge and partly to mostly sunny conditions with limited cloud cover or precipitation. This aligns with climatological August averages of 83°F at Central Park while reflecting the Climate Prediction Center’s warmer-than-normal outlook for the month. Ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing and urban heat island effects, keeping the bulk of implied probability in the 88–93°F range and limiting tail risk above 95°F absent a stronger ridge build or delayed sea breeze.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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