Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 26–28°C for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum, reflecting ensemble spread in short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF models initialized in early August 2026. Primary drivers include variable high-pressure ridging over the North Sea that favors daytime heating, offset by potential onshore flow and cloud cover that could cap temperatures near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show modest warming signals from clearer skies and light winds, yet uncertainty persists due to timing of any frontal passages. Traders weigh these factors against historical August extremes rarely exceeding 30°C at the site, with fresh guidance expected from daily 00Z and 12Z model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 12?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 12?
27°C 35%
28°C 27%
26°C 22%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
22%
27°C
35%
28°C
27%
29°C
11%
30°C
6%
31°C
3%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
1%
27°C 35%
28°C 27%
26°C 22%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
24°C
$12 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
7%
26°C
$103 Vol.
22%
27°C
$5 Vol.
35%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$0 Vol.
11%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C
$11 Vol.
3%
32°C
$12 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 26–28°C for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum, reflecting ensemble spread in short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF models initialized in early August 2026. Primary drivers include variable high-pressure ridging over the North Sea that favors daytime heating, offset by potential onshore flow and cloud cover that could cap temperatures near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show modest warming signals from clearer skies and light winds, yet uncertainty persists due to timing of any frontal passages. Traders weigh these factors against historical August extremes rarely exceeding 30°C at the site, with fresh guidance expected from daily 00Z and 12Z model updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$120End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 26–28°C for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum, reflecting ensemble spread in short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF models initialized in early August 2026. Primary drivers include variable high-pressure ridging over the North Sea that favors daytime heating, offset by potential onshore flow and cloud cover that could cap temperatures near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show modest warming signals from clearer skies and light winds, yet uncertainty persists due to timing of any frontal passages. Traders weigh these factors against historical August extremes rarely exceeding 30°C at the site, with fresh guidance expected from daily 00Z and 12Z model updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$120End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 26–28°C for Amsterdam’s August 12 maximum, reflecting ensemble spread in short-range forecasts from KNMI and ECMWF models initialized in early August 2026. Primary drivers include variable high-pressure ridging over the North Sea that favors daytime heating, offset by potential onshore flow and cloud cover that could cap temperatures near seasonal norms of 21–23°C. Recent model runs show modest warming signals from clearer skies and light winds, yet uncertainty persists due to timing of any frontal passages. Traders weigh these factors against historical August extremes rarely exceeding 30°C at the site, with fresh guidance expected from daily 00Z and 12Z model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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