Trader consensus on the Mexico City daily high temperature market reflects tight scientific uncertainty between 25–26 °C, driven by the interplay of high-elevation cooling at roughly 2,240 m, strong urban heat-island effects, and variable convective cloud cover during the peak of the rainy season. Official forecast guidance shows modest model spread on afternoon insolation and thunderstorm timing, with any earlier or more widespread convection likely capping the high near 25 °C while clearer breaks could allow brief warming to 26 °C. Historical August baselines and current moisture profiles support this narrow range, and the next model runs plus real-time observations from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional will provide the clearest near-term resolution signal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 12?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 12?
26°C 46%
25°C 36%
27°C 11%
24°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
10%
25°C
36%
26°C
46%
27°C
11%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
1%
26°C 46%
25°C 36%
27°C 11%
24°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
19°C or below
$493 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$493 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$576 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$437 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,062 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,349 Vol.
10%
25°C
$1,362 Vol.
36%
26°C
$1,789 Vol.
46%
27°C
$919 Vol.
11%
28°C
$575 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$536 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Mexico City daily high temperature market reflects tight scientific uncertainty between 25–26 °C, driven by the interplay of high-elevation cooling at roughly 2,240 m, strong urban heat-island effects, and variable convective cloud cover during the peak of the rainy season. Official forecast guidance shows modest model spread on afternoon insolation and thunderstorm timing, with any earlier or more widespread convection likely capping the high near 25 °C while clearer breaks could allow brief warming to 26 °C. Historical August baselines and current moisture profiles support this narrow range, and the next model runs plus real-time observations from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional will provide the clearest near-term resolution signal.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$9,591End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus on the Mexico City daily high temperature market reflects tight scientific uncertainty between 25–26 °C, driven by the interplay of high-elevation cooling at roughly 2,240 m, strong urban heat-island effects, and variable convective cloud cover during the peak of the rainy season. Official forecast guidance shows modest model spread on afternoon insolation and thunderstorm timing, with any earlier or more widespread convection likely capping the high near 25 °C while clearer breaks could allow brief warming to 26 °C. Historical August baselines and current moisture profiles support this narrow range, and the next model runs plus real-time observations from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional will provide the clearest near-term resolution signal.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,591End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Mexico City daily high temperature market reflects tight scientific uncertainty between 25–26 °C, driven by the interplay of high-elevation cooling at roughly 2,240 m, strong urban heat-island effects, and variable convective cloud cover during the peak of the rainy season. Official forecast guidance shows modest model spread on afternoon insolation and thunderstorm timing, with any earlier or more widespread convection likely capping the high near 25 °C while clearer breaks could allow brief warming to 26 °C. Historical August baselines and current moisture profiles support this narrow range, and the next model runs plus real-time observations from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional will provide the clearest near-term resolution signal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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