National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus position Seattle’s August 11 high near 77°F, driving the market’s heaviest weighting toward the 78-79°F bin. Persistent marine air intrusion, a passing upper-level trough, and afternoon sea breezes under zonal flow are suppressing inland heat advection despite broader El Niño support for above-normal Pacific Northwest temperatures this summer. These conditions align with the climatological August mean of 77°F and have kept probabilities for 80°F+ outcomes low. Any revisions in the latest 12Z model suite or NWS briefings ahead of resolution remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on August 11?
Highest temperature in Seattle on August 11?
78-79°F 54%
76-77°F 26%
80-81°F 16%
74-75°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
54%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 54%
76-77°F 26%
80-81°F 16%
74-75°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
71°F or below
$424 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$686 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$252 Vol.
6%
76-77°F
$520 Vol.
26%
78-79°F
$1,136 Vol.
54%
80-81°F
$565 Vol.
16%
82-83°F
$312 Vol.
3%
84-85°F
$345 Vol.
2%
86-87°F
$389 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$866 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$573 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus position Seattle’s August 11 high near 77°F, driving the market’s heaviest weighting toward the 78-79°F bin. Persistent marine air intrusion, a passing upper-level trough, and afternoon sea breezes under zonal flow are suppressing inland heat advection despite broader El Niño support for above-normal Pacific Northwest temperatures this summer. These conditions align with the climatological August mean of 77°F and have kept probabilities for 80°F+ outcomes low. Any revisions in the latest 12Z model suite or NWS briefings ahead of resolution remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$6,033End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus position Seattle’s August 11 high near 77°F, driving the market’s heaviest weighting toward the 78-79°F bin. Persistent marine air intrusion, a passing upper-level trough, and afternoon sea breezes under zonal flow are suppressing inland heat advection despite broader El Niño support for above-normal Pacific Northwest temperatures this summer. These conditions align with the climatological August mean of 77°F and have kept probabilities for 80°F+ outcomes low. Any revisions in the latest 12Z model suite or NWS briefings ahead of resolution remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,033End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus position Seattle’s August 11 high near 77°F, driving the market’s heaviest weighting toward the 78-79°F bin. Persistent marine air intrusion, a passing upper-level trough, and afternoon sea breezes under zonal flow are suppressing inland heat advection despite broader El Niño support for above-normal Pacific Northwest temperatures this summer. These conditions align with the climatological August mean of 77°F and have kept probabilities for 80°F+ outcomes low. Any revisions in the latest 12Z model suite or NWS briefings ahead of resolution remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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