**Recent NWS and local forecast updates indicate mostly sunny skies and a modest warming trend for August 11, supporting trader emphasis on the 70-71°F bin.** San Francisco’s summer temperatures are tightly constrained by the persistent marine layer, strong onshore westerlies, and coastal upwelling that typically cap highs near the 69°F August average. Model consensus and recent observations show reduced cloud cover and lighter winds allowing afternoon readings to edge into the low-to-mid 70s at downtown and airport stations, while any stronger marine push or earlier fog could hold readings at 68-69°F. The close 37%–28% split between these two outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty around the exact timing and strength of the sea breeze and marine-layer depth on this short time horizon, with higher bins priced low due to the region’s climatological ceiling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 11?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 11?
70-71°F 37%
68-69°F 28%
72-73°F 20%
66-67°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
65°F or below
3%
66-67°F
10%
68-69°F
28%
70-71°F
37%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 37%
68-69°F 28%
72-73°F 20%
66-67°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
65°F or below
$1,116 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$1,324 Vol.
10%
68-69°F
$1,361 Vol.
28%
70-71°F
$1,514 Vol.
37%
72-73°F
$1,159 Vol.
20%
74-75°F
$860 Vol.
6%
76-77°F
$504 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$490 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$541 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$545 Vol.
<1%
84°F or higher
$466 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent NWS and local forecast updates indicate mostly sunny skies and a modest warming trend for August 11, supporting trader emphasis on the 70-71°F bin.** San Francisco’s summer temperatures are tightly constrained by the persistent marine layer, strong onshore westerlies, and coastal upwelling that typically cap highs near the 69°F August average. Model consensus and recent observations show reduced cloud cover and lighter winds allowing afternoon readings to edge into the low-to-mid 70s at downtown and airport stations, while any stronger marine push or earlier fog could hold readings at 68-69°F. The close 37%–28% split between these two outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty around the exact timing and strength of the sea breeze and marine-layer depth on this short time horizon, with higher bins priced low due to the region’s climatological ceiling.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$9,877End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent NWS and local forecast updates indicate mostly sunny skies and a modest warming trend for August 11, supporting trader emphasis on the 70-71°F bin.** San Francisco’s summer temperatures are tightly constrained by the persistent marine layer, strong onshore westerlies, and coastal upwelling that typically cap highs near the 69°F August average. Model consensus and recent observations show reduced cloud cover and lighter winds allowing afternoon readings to edge into the low-to-mid 70s at downtown and airport stations, while any stronger marine push or earlier fog could hold readings at 68-69°F. The close 37%–28% split between these two outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty around the exact timing and strength of the sea breeze and marine-layer depth on this short time horizon, with higher bins priced low due to the region’s climatological ceiling.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,877End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent NWS and local forecast updates indicate mostly sunny skies and a modest warming trend for August 11, supporting trader emphasis on the 70-71°F bin.** San Francisco’s summer temperatures are tightly constrained by the persistent marine layer, strong onshore westerlies, and coastal upwelling that typically cap highs near the 69°F August average. Model consensus and recent observations show reduced cloud cover and lighter winds allowing afternoon readings to edge into the low-to-mid 70s at downtown and airport stations, while any stronger marine push or earlier fog could hold readings at 68-69°F. The close 37%–28% split between these two outcomes reflects genuine forecast uncertainty around the exact timing and strength of the sea breeze and marine-layer depth on this short time horizon, with higher bins priced low due to the region’s climatological ceiling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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