Recent National Weather Service and local model consensus points to a highest temperature near 98–99°F in Austin on August 11, aligning with the market’s leading 58.5% implied probability, as a lingering upper-level ridge maintains hot conditions while increasing southerly moisture and isolated thunderstorm chances introduce modest cooling. August climatology shows a long-term average daily high of 98°F, providing context for why traders assign secondary weight (32.5%) to 100–101°F and discount extremes above 102°F or below 96°F. Short-range guidance from the past 48 hours has remained stable with limited model spread, though any overnight convective development or boundary-layer mixing changes could nudge the peak by 1–2°F before final observations from official stations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 11?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 11?
98-99°F 56%
100-101°F 38%
102-103°F 5%
96-97°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
4%
98-99°F
56%
100-101°F
38%
102-103°F
5%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 56%
100-101°F 38%
102-103°F 5%
96-97°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
89°F or below
$351 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$375 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$324 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$282 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$339 Vol.
4%
98-99°F
$4,083 Vol.
56%
100-101°F
$715 Vol.
38%
102-103°F
$317 Vol.
5%
104-105°F
$237 Vol.
<1%
106-107°F
$240 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$1,186 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and local model consensus points to a highest temperature near 98–99°F in Austin on August 11, aligning with the market’s leading 58.5% implied probability, as a lingering upper-level ridge maintains hot conditions while increasing southerly moisture and isolated thunderstorm chances introduce modest cooling. August climatology shows a long-term average daily high of 98°F, providing context for why traders assign secondary weight (32.5%) to 100–101°F and discount extremes above 102°F or below 96°F. Short-range guidance from the past 48 hours has remained stable with limited model spread, though any overnight convective development or boundary-layer mixing changes could nudge the peak by 1–2°F before final observations from official stations resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$8,448End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and local model consensus points to a highest temperature near 98–99°F in Austin on August 11, aligning with the market’s leading 58.5% implied probability, as a lingering upper-level ridge maintains hot conditions while increasing southerly moisture and isolated thunderstorm chances introduce modest cooling. August climatology shows a long-term average daily high of 98°F, providing context for why traders assign secondary weight (32.5%) to 100–101°F and discount extremes above 102°F or below 96°F. Short-range guidance from the past 48 hours has remained stable with limited model spread, though any overnight convective development or boundary-layer mixing changes could nudge the peak by 1–2°F before final observations from official stations resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,448End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:04 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and local model consensus points to a highest temperature near 98–99°F in Austin on August 11, aligning with the market’s leading 58.5% implied probability, as a lingering upper-level ridge maintains hot conditions while increasing southerly moisture and isolated thunderstorm chances introduce modest cooling. August climatology shows a long-term average daily high of 98°F, providing context for why traders assign secondary weight (32.5%) to 100–101°F and discount extremes above 102°F or below 96°F. Short-range guidance from the past 48 hours has remained stable with limited model spread, though any overnight convective development or boundary-layer mixing changes could nudge the peak by 1–2°F before final observations from official stations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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