Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance indicates above-normal temperatures across the region for mid-August 2026, yet short-range model runs for Tokyo on August 12 show daytime maxima likely peaking near 28°C amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. The dominant Pacific subtropical high continues to advect warm, humid air, while any increase in cloud cover or precipitation from localized convection can limit solar heating and cap the daily high by 1–2°C. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo amplify baseline readings, but resolution hinges on the precise timing and extent of afternoon cloud build-up. Trader odds cluster tightly between 27–29°C because ensemble forecasts agree on the overall regime yet diverge modestly on peak values, leaving genuine uncertainty until updated model guidance and JMA briefings arrive closer to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?
28°C 33%
27°C 27%
29°C 19%
26°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
13%
27°C
27%
28°C
33%
29°C
19%
30°C
5%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 33%
27°C 27%
29°C 19%
26°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
$79 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$14 Vol.
1%
25°C
$210 Vol.
6%
26°C
$169 Vol.
13%
27°C
$205 Vol.
27%
28°C
$52 Vol.
33%
29°C
$740 Vol.
19%
30°C
$162 Vol.
5%
31°C
$152 Vol.
2%
32°C
$68 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$611 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance indicates above-normal temperatures across the region for mid-August 2026, yet short-range model runs for Tokyo on August 12 show daytime maxima likely peaking near 28°C amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. The dominant Pacific subtropical high continues to advect warm, humid air, while any increase in cloud cover or precipitation from localized convection can limit solar heating and cap the daily high by 1–2°C. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo amplify baseline readings, but resolution hinges on the precise timing and extent of afternoon cloud build-up. Trader odds cluster tightly between 27–29°C because ensemble forecasts agree on the overall regime yet diverge modestly on peak values, leaving genuine uncertainty until updated model guidance and JMA briefings arrive closer to the date.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,460End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance indicates above-normal temperatures across the region for mid-August 2026, yet short-range model runs for Tokyo on August 12 show daytime maxima likely peaking near 28°C amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. The dominant Pacific subtropical high continues to advect warm, humid air, while any increase in cloud cover or precipitation from localized convection can limit solar heating and cap the daily high by 1–2°C. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo amplify baseline readings, but resolution hinges on the precise timing and extent of afternoon cloud build-up. Trader odds cluster tightly between 27–29°C because ensemble forecasts agree on the overall regime yet diverge modestly on peak values, leaving genuine uncertainty until updated model guidance and JMA briefings arrive closer to the date.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,460End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance indicates above-normal temperatures across the region for mid-August 2026, yet short-range model runs for Tokyo on August 12 show daytime maxima likely peaking near 28°C amid partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. The dominant Pacific subtropical high continues to advect warm, humid air, while any increase in cloud cover or precipitation from localized convection can limit solar heating and cap the daily high by 1–2°C. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo amplify baseline readings, but resolution hinges on the precise timing and extent of afternoon cloud build-up. Trader odds cluster tightly between 27–29°C because ensemble forecasts agree on the overall regime yet diverge modestly on peak values, leaving genuine uncertainty until updated model guidance and JMA briefings arrive closer to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions