Forecast models from AEMET and international ensembles currently converge on a Madrid high of 38–39°C for August 14 under a stable high-pressure ridge with southerly flow advecting warm air from North Africa, producing mostly clear skies and light winds that limit mixing. This consensus underpins the market’s heaviest weighting on 39°C (48%), followed by 38°C (27.5%) and 40°C (15.5%), as traders assess the narrow range of possible peak values once diurnal heating and urban heat-island effects are accounted for. Minor model spread around exact timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer depth introduces modest uncertainty that could shift the outcome by 1°C, while the absence of significant moisture or frontal passage keeps probabilities for extremes below 10% tightly constrained. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 14?
39°C 48%
38°C 29%
40°C 19%
41°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
1%
36°C
2%
37°C
5%
38°C
29%
39°C
48%
40°C
14%
41°C
5%
42°C
4%
43°C
1%
44°C
1%
45°C or higher
1%
39°C 48%
38°C 29%
40°C 19%
41°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
$14 Vol.
1%
36°C
$14 Vol.
2%
37°C
$64 Vol.
5%
38°C
$105 Vol.
29%
39°C
$122 Vol.
48%
40°C
$74 Vol.
14%
41°C
$22 Vol.
5%
42°C
$12 Vol.
4%
43°C
$5 Vol.
1%
44°C
$5 Vol.
1%
45°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from AEMET and international ensembles currently converge on a Madrid high of 38–39°C for August 14 under a stable high-pressure ridge with southerly flow advecting warm air from North Africa, producing mostly clear skies and light winds that limit mixing. This consensus underpins the market’s heaviest weighting on 39°C (48%), followed by 38°C (27.5%) and 40°C (15.5%), as traders assess the narrow range of possible peak values once diurnal heating and urban heat-island effects are accounted for. Minor model spread around exact timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer depth introduces modest uncertainty that could shift the outcome by 1°C, while the absence of significant moisture or frontal passage keeps probabilities for extremes below 10% tightly constrained. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$442End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from AEMET and international ensembles currently converge on a Madrid high of 38–39°C for August 14 under a stable high-pressure ridge with southerly flow advecting warm air from North Africa, producing mostly clear skies and light winds that limit mixing. This consensus underpins the market’s heaviest weighting on 39°C (48%), followed by 38°C (27.5%) and 40°C (15.5%), as traders assess the narrow range of possible peak values once diurnal heating and urban heat-island effects are accounted for. Minor model spread around exact timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer depth introduces modest uncertainty that could shift the outcome by 1°C, while the absence of significant moisture or frontal passage keeps probabilities for extremes below 10% tightly constrained. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$442End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from AEMET and international ensembles currently converge on a Madrid high of 38–39°C for August 14 under a stable high-pressure ridge with southerly flow advecting warm air from North Africa, producing mostly clear skies and light winds that limit mixing. This consensus underpins the market’s heaviest weighting on 39°C (48%), followed by 38°C (27.5%) and 40°C (15.5%), as traders assess the narrow range of possible peak values once diurnal heating and urban heat-island effects are accounted for. Minor model spread around exact timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer depth introduces modest uncertainty that could shift the outcome by 1°C, while the absence of significant moisture or frontal passage keeps probabilities for extremes below 10% tightly constrained. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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