Recent forecasts from meteorological models position 26°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's August 14 maximum, reflecting trader consensus on expected highs near typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions moderated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea. Official guidance indicates sunny skies with moderate winds limiting daytime heating below seasonal peaks of 28–29°C, while overnight lows near 22°C constrain temperature buildup. Historical August averages around 27–28°C provide context, but current model runs and stable atmospheric patterns favor the narrower 25–26°C range over higher outcomes, with low implied probabilities for extremes reflecting the absence of heatwave signals or significant model divergence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 14?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 14?
26°C 59%
25°C 28%
27°C 10%
24°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
5%
25°C
28%
26°C
59%
27°C
10%
28°C
3%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
26°C 59%
25°C 28%
27°C 10%
24°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
23°C or below
$106 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$262 Vol.
5%
25°C
$319 Vol.
28%
26°C
$1,116 Vol.
59%
27°C
$494 Vol.
10%
28°C
$282 Vol.
3%
29°C
$286 Vol.
2%
30°C
$220 Vol.
1%
31°C
$370 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$452 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$126 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models position 26°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's August 14 maximum, reflecting trader consensus on expected highs near typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions moderated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea. Official guidance indicates sunny skies with moderate winds limiting daytime heating below seasonal peaks of 28–29°C, while overnight lows near 22°C constrain temperature buildup. Historical August averages around 27–28°C provide context, but current model runs and stable atmospheric patterns favor the narrower 25–26°C range over higher outcomes, with low implied probabilities for extremes reflecting the absence of heatwave signals or significant model divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,032End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models position 26°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's August 14 maximum, reflecting trader consensus on expected highs near typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions moderated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea. Official guidance indicates sunny skies with moderate winds limiting daytime heating below seasonal peaks of 28–29°C, while overnight lows near 22°C constrain temperature buildup. Historical August averages around 27–28°C provide context, but current model runs and stable atmospheric patterns favor the narrower 25–26°C range over higher outcomes, with low implied probabilities for extremes reflecting the absence of heatwave signals or significant model divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,032End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological models position 26°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's August 14 maximum, reflecting trader consensus on expected highs near typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions moderated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Marmara Sea. Official guidance indicates sunny skies with moderate winds limiting daytime heating below seasonal peaks of 28–29°C, while overnight lows near 22°C constrain temperature buildup. Historical August averages around 27–28°C provide context, but current model runs and stable atmospheric patterns favor the narrower 25–26°C range over higher outcomes, with low implied probabilities for extremes reflecting the absence of heatwave signals or significant model divergence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions