Recent forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service equivalents and regional analyses indicate a typical mid-August winter pattern for subtropical São Paulo, with daytime highs likely reaching 25–27°C amid mostly stable high-pressure systems and minimal cold front activity. This aligns with climatological baselines where August averages hover near 23–25°C, occasionally nudged higher by brief warming under clear skies or lower due to increased cloud cover and southerly flows. Trader emphasis on 26°C and 27°C outcomes reflects consensus from short-range ensemble predictions showing modest daytime warming without anomalous heat advection, while lower probabilities for extremes underscore low variability in current steering patterns and surface observations. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 14?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 14?
26°C 37%
27°C 26%
25°C 22%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
22%
26°C
37%
27°C
26%
28°C
7%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 37%
27°C 26%
25°C 22%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
21°C or below
$147 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$131 Vol.
1%
23°C
$60 Vol.
2%
24°C
$160 Vol.
5%
25°C
$175 Vol.
22%
26°C
$285 Vol.
37%
27°C
$618 Vol.
26%
28°C
$377 Vol.
7%
29°C
$568 Vol.
3%
30°C
$107 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$184 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service equivalents and regional analyses indicate a typical mid-August winter pattern for subtropical São Paulo, with daytime highs likely reaching 25–27°C amid mostly stable high-pressure systems and minimal cold front activity. This aligns with climatological baselines where August averages hover near 23–25°C, occasionally nudged higher by brief warming under clear skies or lower due to increased cloud cover and southerly flows. Trader emphasis on 26°C and 27°C outcomes reflects consensus from short-range ensemble predictions showing modest daytime warming without anomalous heat advection, while lower probabilities for extremes underscore low variability in current steering patterns and surface observations. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,812End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service equivalents and regional analyses indicate a typical mid-August winter pattern for subtropical São Paulo, with daytime highs likely reaching 25–27°C amid mostly stable high-pressure systems and minimal cold front activity. This aligns with climatological baselines where August averages hover near 23–25°C, occasionally nudged higher by brief warming under clear skies or lower due to increased cloud cover and southerly flows. Trader emphasis on 26°C and 27°C outcomes reflects consensus from short-range ensemble predictions showing modest daytime warming without anomalous heat advection, while lower probabilities for extremes underscore low variability in current steering patterns and surface observations. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,812End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service equivalents and regional analyses indicate a typical mid-August winter pattern for subtropical São Paulo, with daytime highs likely reaching 25–27°C amid mostly stable high-pressure systems and minimal cold front activity. This aligns with climatological baselines where August averages hover near 23–25°C, occasionally nudged higher by brief warming under clear skies or lower due to increased cloud cover and southerly flows. Trader emphasis on 26°C and 27°C outcomes reflects consensus from short-range ensemble predictions showing modest daytime warming without anomalous heat advection, while lower probabilities for extremes underscore low variability in current steering patterns and surface observations. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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