Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies project Beijing's August 15 maximum near 30–31°C, with model consensus supporting this range amid typical late-summer monsoon patterns, elevated humidity, and scattered thunderstorm activity that limits daytime heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. These conditions, consistent with August climatology showing average highs around 30°C and declining from early-month peaks, explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds on 30–32°C outcomes. Key variables include steering flow steering systems northward and potential for localized clearing that could allow brief spikes toward 33°C or suppression below 30°C if heavier rain develops. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?
31°C 27%
32°C 27%
33°C 20%
30°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
4%
28°C
4%
29°C
11%
30°C
16%
31°C
27%
32°C
27%
33°C
20%
34°C
5%
35°C
1%
36°C
4%
37°C or higher
1%
31°C 27%
32°C 27%
33°C 20%
30°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$5 Vol.
4%
28°C
$10 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
11%
30°C
$11 Vol.
16%
31°C
$0 Vol.
27%
32°C
$46 Vol.
27%
33°C
$46 Vol.
20%
34°C
$25 Vol.
5%
35°C
$29 Vol.
1%
36°C
$12 Vol.
4%
37°C or higher
$20 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies project Beijing's August 15 maximum near 30–31°C, with model consensus supporting this range amid typical late-summer monsoon patterns, elevated humidity, and scattered thunderstorm activity that limits daytime heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. These conditions, consistent with August climatology showing average highs around 30°C and declining from early-month peaks, explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds on 30–32°C outcomes. Key variables include steering flow steering systems northward and potential for localized clearing that could allow brief spikes toward 33°C or suppression below 30°C if heavier rain develops. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$204End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies project Beijing's August 15 maximum near 30–31°C, with model consensus supporting this range amid typical late-summer monsoon patterns, elevated humidity, and scattered thunderstorm activity that limits daytime heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. These conditions, consistent with August climatology showing average highs around 30°C and declining from early-month peaks, explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds on 30–32°C outcomes. Key variables include steering flow steering systems northward and potential for localized clearing that could allow brief spikes toward 33°C or suppression below 30°C if heavier rain develops. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$204End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from meteorological agencies project Beijing's August 15 maximum near 30–31°C, with model consensus supporting this range amid typical late-summer monsoon patterns, elevated humidity, and scattered thunderstorm activity that limits daytime heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. These conditions, consistent with August climatology showing average highs around 30°C and declining from early-month peaks, explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds on 30–32°C outcomes. Key variables include steering flow steering systems northward and potential for localized clearing that could allow brief spikes toward 33°C or suppression below 30°C if heavier rain develops. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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