Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and NIWA indicate a maximum of 14–15 °C in Wellington on August 13 under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, consistent with near-average winter conditions for the region. Current ensemble guidance shows limited diurnal warming due to moderate winds and residual cool air masses, keeping daily highs clustered near the long-term August mean of roughly 13 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15 °C (52.5 %) and 14 °C (31.5 %), reflecting tight model agreement on these thresholds while assigning low odds to outliers above 16 °C or below 13 °C. Updated runs overnight or early on the 13th will refine the precise peak before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 13?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 13?
15°C 53%
14°C 32%
16°C 10%
13°C 5%
NEW
$12,083 Vol.
NEW
$12,083 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
32%
15°C
53%
16°C
10%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 53%
14°C 32%
16°C 10%
13°C 5%
NEW
$12,083 Vol.
NEW
$12,083 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
9°C or below
$429 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$579 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$368 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$769 Vol.
1%
13°C
$1,732 Vol.
5%
14°C
$1,807 Vol.
32%
15°C
$2,443 Vol.
53%
16°C
$2,278 Vol.
10%
17°C
$534 Vol.
2%
18°C
$438 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$707 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and NIWA indicate a maximum of 14–15 °C in Wellington on August 13 under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, consistent with near-average winter conditions for the region. Current ensemble guidance shows limited diurnal warming due to moderate winds and residual cool air masses, keeping daily highs clustered near the long-term August mean of roughly 13 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15 °C (52.5 %) and 14 °C (31.5 %), reflecting tight model agreement on these thresholds while assigning low odds to outliers above 16 °C or below 13 °C. Updated runs overnight or early on the 13th will refine the precise peak before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$12,083End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and NIWA indicate a maximum of 14–15 °C in Wellington on August 13 under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, consistent with near-average winter conditions for the region. Current ensemble guidance shows limited diurnal warming due to moderate winds and residual cool air masses, keeping daily highs clustered near the long-term August mean of roughly 13 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15 °C (52.5 %) and 14 °C (31.5 %), reflecting tight model agreement on these thresholds while assigning low odds to outliers above 16 °C or below 13 °C. Updated runs overnight or early on the 13th will refine the precise peak before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,083End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and NIWA indicate a maximum of 14–15 °C in Wellington on August 13 under southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, consistent with near-average winter conditions for the region. Current ensemble guidance shows limited diurnal warming due to moderate winds and residual cool air masses, keeping daily highs clustered near the long-term August mean of roughly 13 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15 °C (52.5 %) and 14 °C (31.5 %), reflecting tight model agreement on these thresholds while assigning low odds to outliers above 16 °C or below 13 °C. Updated runs overnight or early on the 13th will refine the precise peak before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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