Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project a maximum of 31°C on August 14 amid persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions that deliver frequent cloud cover and scattered to heavy rains, moderating peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 30–31°C outcomes at combined implied probabilities near 49%, as monsoon-driven convection and high humidity (often exceeding 80%) limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, while short-term model runs show limited day-to-day variance absent a tropical cyclone landfall or abrupt steering shift. Upcoming 24–48 hour PAGASA updates and any revised monsoon intensity will be key resolution drivers, given the tight spread between leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 14?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 14?
31°C 30%
30°C 26%
32°C 21%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
12%
30°C
26%
31°C
30%
32°C
21%
33°C
5%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 30%
30°C 26%
32°C 21%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
$20 Vol.
1%
26°C
$10 Vol.
1%
27°C
$12 Vol.
1%
28°C
$129 Vol.
4%
29°C
$96 Vol.
12%
30°C
$0 Vol.
26%
31°C
$0 Vol.
30%
32°C
$0 Vol.
21%
33°C
$21 Vol.
5%
34°C
$23 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$15 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project a maximum of 31°C on August 14 amid persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions that deliver frequent cloud cover and scattered to heavy rains, moderating peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 30–31°C outcomes at combined implied probabilities near 49%, as monsoon-driven convection and high humidity (often exceeding 80%) limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, while short-term model runs show limited day-to-day variance absent a tropical cyclone landfall or abrupt steering shift. Upcoming 24–48 hour PAGASA updates and any revised monsoon intensity will be key resolution drivers, given the tight spread between leading bins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$327End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project a maximum of 31°C on August 14 amid persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions that deliver frequent cloud cover and scattered to heavy rains, moderating peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 30–31°C outcomes at combined implied probabilities near 49%, as monsoon-driven convection and high humidity (often exceeding 80%) limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, while short-term model runs show limited day-to-day variance absent a tropical cyclone landfall or abrupt steering shift. Upcoming 24–48 hour PAGASA updates and any revised monsoon intensity will be key resolution drivers, given the tight spread between leading bins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$327End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project a maximum of 31°C on August 14 amid persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions that deliver frequent cloud cover and scattered to heavy rains, moderating peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 30–31°C outcomes at combined implied probabilities near 49%, as monsoon-driven convection and high humidity (often exceeding 80%) limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline, while short-term model runs show limited day-to-day variance absent a tropical cyclone landfall or abrupt steering shift. Upcoming 24–48 hour PAGASA updates and any revised monsoon intensity will be key resolution drivers, given the tight spread between leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions