Traders are pricing the highest probabilities around 22–23°C for London's minimum temperature on August 14, reflecting consensus in the latest Met Office and ECMWF model runs that show a mild overnight low under high pressure and light southerly flow. Key variables include potential cloud cover that could limit radiative cooling, sea surface temperatures in the North Sea sustaining warmth, and any subtle shift in the jet stream that might introduce cooler northerly air. Historical August minima in London average near 14–16°C, so current guidance represents an unusually warm anomaly driven by recent blocking patterns. Forecasters will issue updated guidance within the next 24–48 hours ahead of the date, with resolution based on official Met Office observations at representative stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 14?
Lowest temperature in London on August 14?
22°C 45%
23°C 31%
21°C 22%
20°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
3%
19°C
6%
20°C
14%
21°C
22%
22°C
45%
23°C
31%
24°C
10%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
22°C 45%
23°C 31%
21°C 22%
20°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
16°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
17°C
$18 Vol.
4%
18°C
$11 Vol.
3%
19°C
$0 Vol.
6%
20°C
$20 Vol.
14%
21°C
$45 Vol.
22%
22°C
$19 Vol.
45%
23°C
$46 Vol.
31%
24°C
$39 Vol.
10%
25°C
$39 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$39 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing the highest probabilities around 22–23°C for London's minimum temperature on August 14, reflecting consensus in the latest Met Office and ECMWF model runs that show a mild overnight low under high pressure and light southerly flow. Key variables include potential cloud cover that could limit radiative cooling, sea surface temperatures in the North Sea sustaining warmth, and any subtle shift in the jet stream that might introduce cooler northerly air. Historical August minima in London average near 14–16°C, so current guidance represents an unusually warm anomaly driven by recent blocking patterns. Forecasters will issue updated guidance within the next 24–48 hours ahead of the date, with resolution based on official Met Office observations at representative stations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:30 AM ET
Volume
$289End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing the highest probabilities around 22–23°C for London's minimum temperature on August 14, reflecting consensus in the latest Met Office and ECMWF model runs that show a mild overnight low under high pressure and light southerly flow. Key variables include potential cloud cover that could limit radiative cooling, sea surface temperatures in the North Sea sustaining warmth, and any subtle shift in the jet stream that might introduce cooler northerly air. Historical August minima in London average near 14–16°C, so current guidance represents an unusually warm anomaly driven by recent blocking patterns. Forecasters will issue updated guidance within the next 24–48 hours ahead of the date, with resolution based on official Met Office observations at representative stations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$289End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing the highest probabilities around 22–23°C for London's minimum temperature on August 14, reflecting consensus in the latest Met Office and ECMWF model runs that show a mild overnight low under high pressure and light southerly flow. Key variables include potential cloud cover that could limit radiative cooling, sea surface temperatures in the North Sea sustaining warmth, and any subtle shift in the jet stream that might introduce cooler northerly air. Historical August minima in London average near 14–16°C, so current guidance represents an unusually warm anomaly driven by recent blocking patterns. Forecasters will issue updated guidance within the next 24–48 hours ahead of the date, with resolution based on official Met Office observations at representative stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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