**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 14, 2026, reflecting stable late-summer conditions two days ahead.** Current forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS), global models, and sources such as timeanddate.com and the UK Met Office converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C under mostly sunny skies with light to moderate westerly winds. These align with Tel Aviv’s Mediterranean climate, where the sea breeze typically caps inland heating and keeps coastal highs close to the seasonal average of 30–32°C. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening that would push readings to 34°C or higher, while post-heat-wave stabilization earlier in August has reduced volatility. The low probabilities assigned to 34°C+ or sub-31°C outcomes reflect limited forecast spread and the absence of disruptive weather systems in the 48-hour window. Traders are weighting the consensus of ensemble guidance and historical analogs for mid-August, when clear, dry conditions predominate but extreme outliers remain rare. Updated IMS briefings and final observational data on the 14th will provide the last inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 14?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 14?
33°C 56%
32°C 38%
34°C 7%
31°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
38%
33°C
56%
34°C
7%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 56%
32°C 38%
34°C 7%
31°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
29°C or below
$141 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$82 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$185 Vol.
2%
32°C
$599 Vol.
38%
33°C
$334 Vol.
56%
34°C
$292 Vol.
7%
35°C
$254 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$80 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$166 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$110 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 14, 2026, reflecting stable late-summer conditions two days ahead.**
Current forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS), global models, and sources such as timeanddate.com and the UK Met Office converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C under mostly sunny skies with light to moderate westerly winds. These align with Tel Aviv’s Mediterranean climate, where the sea breeze typically caps inland heating and keeps coastal highs close to the seasonal average of 30–32°C. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening that would push readings to 34°C or higher, while post-heat-wave stabilization earlier in August has reduced volatility.
The low probabilities assigned to 34°C+ or sub-31°C outcomes reflect limited forecast spread and the absence of disruptive weather systems in the 48-hour window. Traders are weighting the consensus of ensemble guidance and historical analogs for mid-August, when clear, dry conditions predominate but extreme outliers remain rare. Updated IMS briefings and final observational data on the 14th will provide the last inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$2,261End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 14, 2026, reflecting stable late-summer conditions two days ahead.**
Current forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS), global models, and sources such as timeanddate.com and the UK Met Office converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C under mostly sunny skies with light to moderate westerly winds. These align with Tel Aviv’s Mediterranean climate, where the sea breeze typically caps inland heating and keeps coastal highs close to the seasonal average of 30–32°C. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening that would push readings to 34°C or higher, while post-heat-wave stabilization earlier in August has reduced volatility.
The low probabilities assigned to 34°C+ or sub-31°C outcomes reflect limited forecast spread and the absence of disruptive weather systems in the 48-hour window. Traders are weighting the consensus of ensemble guidance and historical analogs for mid-August, when clear, dry conditions predominate but extreme outliers remain rare. Updated IMS briefings and final observational data on the 14th will provide the last inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,261End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 14, 2026, reflecting stable late-summer conditions two days ahead.** Current forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS), global models, and sources such as timeanddate.com and the UK Met Office converge on a daytime maximum near 32°C under mostly sunny skies with light to moderate westerly winds. These align with Tel Aviv’s Mediterranean climate, where the sea breeze typically caps inland heating and keeps coastal highs close to the seasonal average of 30–32°C. Recent model runs show no significant heat advection or subsidence strengthening that would push readings to 34°C or higher, while post-heat-wave stabilization earlier in August has reduced volatility. The low probabilities assigned to 34°C+ or sub-31°C outcomes reflect limited forecast spread and the absence of disruptive weather systems in the 48-hour window. Traders are weighting the consensus of ensemble guidance and historical analogs for mid-August, when clear, dry conditions predominate but extreme outliers remain rare. Updated IMS briefings and final observational data on the 14th will provide the last inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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