Recent official forecasts from Spain's AEMET and ensemble model guidance position 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid's August 12 maximum, with 39°C holding the highest market-implied probability at 58.5%. Subsidence under a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula is limiting vertical mixing and cloud formation, favoring strong diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and light winds. Historical August climatology shows mean highs near 33°C, but current 850 hPa temperatures and soil moisture deficits support anomalies of +5–7°C. Minor model spread around boundary-layer details and urban heat-island effects at Retiro station keeps 38°C viable at 38.5% implied odds, while probabilities for 40°C or higher remain low absent any shift in steering patterns or incoming warm advection. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 12?
39°C 47%
38°C 43%
40°C 7%
37°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
3%
36°C
2%
37°C
4%
38°C
43%
39°C
47%
40°C
7%
41°C
3%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
1%
39°C 47%
38°C 43%
40°C 7%
37°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 12, 2026
33°C or below
$53 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$53 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$7 Vol.
3%
36°C
$59 Vol.
2%
37°C
$98 Vol.
4%
38°C
$153 Vol.
43%
39°C
$276 Vol.
47%
40°C
$108 Vol.
7%
41°C
$23 Vol.
3%
42°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$53 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Spain's AEMET and ensemble model guidance position 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid's August 12 maximum, with 39°C holding the highest market-implied probability at 58.5%. Subsidence under a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula is limiting vertical mixing and cloud formation, favoring strong diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and light winds. Historical August climatology shows mean highs near 33°C, but current 850 hPa temperatures and soil moisture deficits support anomalies of +5–7°C. Minor model spread around boundary-layer details and urban heat-island effects at Retiro station keeps 38°C viable at 38.5% implied odds, while probabilities for 40°C or higher remain low absent any shift in steering patterns or incoming warm advection. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$871End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Spain's AEMET and ensemble model guidance position 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid's August 12 maximum, with 39°C holding the highest market-implied probability at 58.5%. Subsidence under a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula is limiting vertical mixing and cloud formation, favoring strong diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and light winds. Historical August climatology shows mean highs near 33°C, but current 850 hPa temperatures and soil moisture deficits support anomalies of +5–7°C. Minor model spread around boundary-layer details and urban heat-island effects at Retiro station keeps 38°C viable at 38.5% implied odds, while probabilities for 40°C or higher remain low absent any shift in steering patterns or incoming warm advection. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$871End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Spain's AEMET and ensemble model guidance position 38–39°C as the most likely range for Madrid's August 12 maximum, with 39°C holding the highest market-implied probability at 58.5%. Subsidence under a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula is limiting vertical mixing and cloud formation, favoring strong diurnal heating under mostly clear skies and light winds. Historical August climatology shows mean highs near 33°C, but current 850 hPa temperatures and soil moisture deficits support anomalies of +5–7°C. Minor model spread around boundary-layer details and urban heat-island effects at Retiro station keeps 38°C viable at 38.5% implied odds, while probabilities for 40°C or higher remain low absent any shift in steering patterns or incoming warm advection. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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