Recent short-range forecast runs from meteorological agencies highlight variable convective activity and scattered thunderstorms over Guangzhou on August 15, keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 34–36°C. Subtropical monsoon influences, high humidity, and urban heat-island effects interact with steering patterns and diurnal heating to determine afternoon peaks, while cloud cover and rainfall timing introduce model spread. Historical August baselines near 32–34°C provide context, with official station measurements sensitive to localized precipitation suppression of maximum temperatures. Updated model guidance and observational data in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 15?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 15?
35°C 25%
36°C 25%
34°C 21%
37°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
9%
32°C
8%
33°C
13%
34°C
21%
35°C
25%
36°C
25%
37°C
14%
38°C
13%
39°C or higher
5%
35°C 25%
36°C 25%
34°C 21%
37°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$64 Vol.
9%
32°C
$64 Vol.
8%
33°C
$0 Vol.
13%
34°C
$0 Vol.
21%
35°C
$0 Vol.
25%
36°C
$0 Vol.
25%
37°C
$0 Vol.
14%
38°C
$67 Vol.
13%
39°C or higher
$5 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast runs from meteorological agencies highlight variable convective activity and scattered thunderstorms over Guangzhou on August 15, keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 34–36°C. Subtropical monsoon influences, high humidity, and urban heat-island effects interact with steering patterns and diurnal heating to determine afternoon peaks, while cloud cover and rainfall timing introduce model spread. Historical August baselines near 32–34°C provide context, with official station measurements sensitive to localized precipitation suppression of maximum temperatures. Updated model guidance and observational data in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$200End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast runs from meteorological agencies highlight variable convective activity and scattered thunderstorms over Guangzhou on August 15, keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 34–36°C. Subtropical monsoon influences, high humidity, and urban heat-island effects interact with steering patterns and diurnal heating to determine afternoon peaks, while cloud cover and rainfall timing introduce model spread. Historical August baselines near 32–34°C provide context, with official station measurements sensitive to localized precipitation suppression of maximum temperatures. Updated model guidance and observational data in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$200End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast runs from meteorological agencies highlight variable convective activity and scattered thunderstorms over Guangzhou on August 15, keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 34–36°C. Subtropical monsoon influences, high humidity, and urban heat-island effects interact with steering patterns and diurnal heating to determine afternoon peaks, while cloud cover and rainfall timing introduce model spread. Historical August baselines near 32–34°C provide context, with official station measurements sensitive to localized precipitation suppression of maximum temperatures. Updated model guidance and observational data in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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