Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster Istanbul's August 15 maximum temperature tightly around 25–27°C, with minor divergences in timing of northerly flow and cloud cover producing the near-even market split between the top three outcomes. Persistent summer high pressure and Bosphorus sea-breeze effects typically cap daytime peaks near the seasonal 28°C average, while subtle shifts in wind direction or brief diurnal heating variations can swing the daily high by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and observational data expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 15?
25°C 44%
26°C 41%
27°C 21%
24°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
6%
23°C
2%
24°C
13%
25°C
44%
26°C
41%
27°C
21%
28°C
10%
29°C
7%
30°C
3%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
2%
25°C 44%
26°C 41%
27°C 21%
24°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
$46 Vol.
6%
23°C
$12 Vol.
2%
24°C
$179 Vol.
13%
25°C
$21 Vol.
44%
26°C
$4 Vol.
41%
27°C
$0 Vol.
21%
28°C
$0 Vol.
10%
29°C
$9 Vol.
7%
30°C
$12 Vol.
3%
31°C
$12 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$12 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster Istanbul's August 15 maximum temperature tightly around 25–27°C, with minor divergences in timing of northerly flow and cloud cover producing the near-even market split between the top three outcomes. Persistent summer high pressure and Bosphorus sea-breeze effects typically cap daytime peaks near the seasonal 28°C average, while subtle shifts in wind direction or brief diurnal heating variations can swing the daily high by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and observational data expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$307End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster Istanbul's August 15 maximum temperature tightly around 25–27°C, with minor divergences in timing of northerly flow and cloud cover producing the near-even market split between the top three outcomes. Persistent summer high pressure and Bosphorus sea-breeze effects typically cap daytime peaks near the seasonal 28°C average, while subtle shifts in wind direction or brief diurnal heating variations can swing the daily high by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and observational data expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$307End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models cluster Istanbul's August 15 maximum temperature tightly around 25–27°C, with minor divergences in timing of northerly flow and cloud cover producing the near-even market split between the top three outcomes. Persistent summer high pressure and Bosphorus sea-breeze effects typically cap daytime peaks near the seasonal 28°C average, while subtle shifts in wind direction or brief diurnal heating variations can swing the daily high by 1–2°C. Updated model runs and observational data expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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